Championship · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Swansea City (2.63) and Norwich City (2.70) are priced within a few ticks of each other, reflecting an evenly matched contest with no clear market favourite.
The draw at 3.6 implies roughly 27.8% probability, a notably high figure that reinforces how tightly the match-result market is balanced.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.76 carries a 55% implied confidence from the model, but its value edge is -3.22%, meaning the odds do not offer a statistical advantage over the model's estimate.
No value picks against market consensus cleared the site's threshold for this fixture, indicating the win/draw/win market is being priced efficiently.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.56 |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.55 |
| 1-2 | 7.2% | 13.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.58 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Swansea City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SC | X | 2 · NC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.58 | 3.55 | 2.66 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.39 | 2.67 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.66 | 3.28 | 2.66 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Swansea City host Norwich City in a Championship fixture where the betting market sees very little to separate the two sides. Swansea are priced marginally shorter at 2.63 with Pinnacle, implying a win probability of roughly 38%, while Norwich sit close behind at 2.70 (Codere IT), implying about 37%. The draw is offered at 3.6, translating to an implied chance near 27.8%, a figure high enough to suggest bookmakers expect a tightly contested match rather than a one-sided affair. With no outright value picks clearing our threshold on the match-result market, attention shifts to the goals market, where the model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 (1xBet) as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 55%. That said, the quoted value edge on this selection is actually negative, meaning the price does not clearly outperform the model's own probability estimate, so this should be treated as a data-led lean rather than a strong edge.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, backed by a 55% implied confidence, but the negative value edge means this is not flagged as a genuine market inefficiency. It is a plausible angle given how close the match-result odds are, though bettors should treat it as moderate-risk rather than a clear-cut opportunity.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.74 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77, with a 54% confidence rating.
The market makes Swansea City the marginal favourite at 2.63 against Norwich City's 2.70, but the gap is small enough that neither side is strongly favoured.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Codere (IT), which implies an approximate 27.8% chance, a relatively high figure suggesting an evenly matched fixture.
No match-result selections cleared the value threshold. The site's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, though its calculated value edge is slightly negative at -3.22%, so it should not be considered a confirmed value play.
Swansea City vs Norwich City takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Championship.
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