2. Bundesliga · Sat · 11:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Darmstadt are the favourites at 2.18 (about 46% implied), ahead of Holstein Kiel at 3.2 (about 31%).
The gap between the two sides is moderate, not decisive, leaving Kiel a genuine outsider's chance.
The draw is priced at 3.85, roughly 26% implied, a typical mid-range figure rather than a strong stalemate signal.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.58 shows a negative value edge of -5.52%, so it is not flagged as market-beating value.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 3.20 | Tipico | 31.3% |
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 2.18 | Betfair | 45.9% |
| Draw | 3.85 | Coolbet | 26.0% |
This 2. Bundesliga clash sees SV Darmstadt 98 host Holstein Kiel, and the market gives Darmstadt the edge at home. At a best price of 2.18, Darmstadt are priced at roughly 46% implied probability, while Holstein Kiel at 3.2 sit closer to 31%. The draw at 3.85 translates to about 26%, a fairly standard middle line rather than a tight, cagey expectation. That spread points to a home side favoured but far from dominant, with Kiel holding a realistic outsider's chance. Our model steers away from the match-result market and toward goals: the recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.58, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 60%. Note, though, that the value edge on this pick reads as negative at -5.52%, meaning the price offers no clear pricing advantage over the market consensus. It is a lean on game profile rather than a standout value spot in this fixture.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.58, with implied confidence around 60%. It reflects an expectation of an open game rather than a priced-in edge, since the value read is negative at -5.52%. Treat it as a modest game-profile lean and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:30 | VfL Bochum v Hertha Berlin | 2.48 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | 1. FC Magdeburg v Eintracht Braunschweig | 1.81 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | 1. FC Heidenheim v VfL Osnabrück | 1.64 | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| 8 Aug 11:00 | Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld | 2.95 | 3.95 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 18:30 | VfL Wolfsburg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1.63 | 4.40 | 5.25 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | FC St. Pauli v Greuther Fürth | 1.87 | 3.95 | 4.00 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | 1. FC Nürnberg v Dynamo Dresden | 2.11 | 3.85 | 3.30 |
| 9 Aug 11:30 | FC Energie Cottbus v Hannover 96 | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.16 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 41% confidence rating.
SV Darmstadt 98 are the market favourites at a best price of 2.18, around 46% implied probability. Holstein Kiel are the outsiders at 3.2, roughly 31%.
The draw is available at 3.85 with Coolbet, which equates to about 26% implied probability. That is a fairly standard mid-range price for this fixture.
No pick cleared the value threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 actually carries a negative value edge of -5.52%, so it is a game-profile lean rather than a value bet.
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel takes place Sat · 11:00 in the 2. Bundesliga.
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