Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Brighton are priced as favourites at 2.44, implying roughly a 41 percent win probability, the shortest of the three outcomes.
Sunderland's 3.10 price implies around 32 percent, keeping them within realistic reach on paper.
The draw at 3.54 implies about 28 percent, showing the match-result market is fairly tightly bunched.
The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.97, carrying a 53 percent implied confidence and a 3.44 percent value edge versus market consensus.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.31 |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | 9.49 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.79 |
| 0-2 | 8.1% | 12.30 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | 14.58 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.14 and 1.54. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sunderland's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SUN | X | 2 · BAH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.84 | 3.70 | 2.58 |
| 1xBet | 2.93 | 3.47 | 2.59 |
| Coolbet | 2.82 | 3.57 | 2.47 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.48 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.48 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.48 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sunderland host Brighton and Hove Albion in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors without making them an overwhelming favourite. Brighton's best price of 2.44 implies a win probability of roughly 41 percent, while Sunderland's 3.10 price points to about 32 percent, and the draw at 3.54 sits close behind at around 28 percent. That spread suggests a competitive match rather than a lopsided one, with all three outcomes carrying realistic backing from oddsmakers. Away from the result market, our model's own analysis points toward the goals total rather than the winner, flagging Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 as the recommended angle, built on a 53 percent implied confidence level and a modest value edge of 3.44 percent over the standard market consensus. It is a low-scoring lean rather than a strong directional pick on either side.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.97 offers a small statistical edge (3.44 percent) with just over half implied confidence, making it a measured rather than a strongly favoured bet. The match-result market itself is fairly close, so this goals-total angle looks like the more data-supported option, though no outcome here is close to certain.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
| 11 Oct 15:30 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 50% confidence rating.
Brighton and Hove Albion are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.44, which implies roughly a 41 percent chance of winning, ahead of Sunderland's 32 percent implied probability.
The draw is priced at 3.54, which implies an approximate 28 percent probability, making it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes according to the market.
There are no value picks flagged in the match-result market above the site's threshold, but the model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 as a recommended bet, citing a 3.44 percent edge over market consensus.
Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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