English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
Strasbourg to win
Odds
3.30
LostResult
1-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
36%Pre-match conf.
-4.07%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at LeoVegas (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Monaco's 2.23 price implies roughly a 45 percent win probability, the strongest implied chance of the three outcomes.
02
Strasbourg's 3.3 price implies about a 30 percent win probability, versus the model's estimate of 36 percent, producing a 17.5 percent value edge on the home win.
03
The draw at 3.9 implies close to a 26 percent chance, keeping it a live possibility rather than a fringe outcome.
04
Combined implied probabilities across the three outcomes sit just above 100 percent, indicating a relatively tight, low-margin market.
Team form
STR Strasbourg LDWWL
19 Sept 26 @ Paris FC 1-2
12 Sept 26 vs Monaco 1-1
6 Sept 26 @ Troyes 6-2
29 Aug 26 vs RC Lens 2-1
21 Aug 26 @ Marseille 0-4
AM AS Monaco WDWWW
18 Sept 26 vs RC Lens 2-1
12 Sept 26 @ Strasbourg 1-1
4 Sept 26 @ PSG 2-1
30 Aug 26 vs Marseille 2-0
23 Aug 26 @ Le Havre 1-0
Head-to-head: Strasbourg v AS Monaco
Full H2H history → D 12 Sept 26
Strasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1
W 17 May 26
Strasbourg 5-4 MonacoLigue 1
L 31 Aug 25
Monaco 3-2 StrasbourgLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Strasbourg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Strasbourg vs AS Monaco: pre-match preview
Strasbourg host AS Monaco in a Ligue 1 fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Monaco are priced at 2.23 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 45 percent, making them the clear favourite on paper. Strasbourg sit at 3.3 with LeoVegas (SE), translating to an implied chance of about 30 percent, while the draw is priced at 3.9, or roughly 26 percent. Those three numbers sum to just over 100 percent, pointing to a tightly priced market with little bookmaker margin. Against that backdrop, our model flags Strasbourg's home win at 3.3 as the standout angle, estimating their true winning chance closer to 36 percent than the market's 30 percent, an edge of 17.5 percent. No other selection in this match clears our value threshold, so this remains the single highlighted angle for bettors weighing up the fixture.
Verdict: Strasbourg to win at 3.3 is the model's recommended play, built on a 17.5 percent edge over the market's implied probability. Monaco remain favourites and the underlying win chance for Strasbourg is still under 40 percent, so this is a value-based, higher-risk pick rather than a safe selection. Staking should reflect that uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 12 Sept 26
Over 2.5 goalsfinal score 1-1
1.69 -1.00u Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Strasbourg vs AS Monaco?+
Our tip was Strasbourg to win at odds of 3.30.
Who is favourite in the Strasbourg vs Monaco match?+
AS Monaco are favourites at odds of 2.23, which implies roughly a 45 percent chance of victory, the highest implied probability among the three match outcomes.
What is the draw priced at in this fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.9 with LeoVegas (SE), which implies an approximate 26 percent probability, making it the least likely of the three outcomes according to the market.
Is there value in betting on this match according to the data?+
Yes, the model highlights Strasbourg to win at 3.3 as a value bet, estimating a 36 percent win probability against the market's implied 30 percent, a 17.5 percent edge; no other selection clears the value threshold.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).