Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Stoke City are the market favourites at 2.52 (about 40% implied), but only modestly ahead of Swansea City at 3.01 (about 33%).
The draw is priced at 3.4, implying roughly a 29% chance, consistent with a tight, evenly matched fixture.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.1 carries market-implied confidence of around 45%.
That goals selection shows a negative value edge of -4.84%, indicating the price is marginally worse than the model's fair estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.63 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.97 |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 9.16 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.78 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.71 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.18 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Stoke City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 2.52 | Betfair | 39.7% |
| Swansea City | 3.01 | Pinnacle | 33.2% |
| Draw | 3.40 | Coolbet | 29.4% |
This Championship clash sees Stoke City host Swansea City, and the market leans towards the home side without treating them as strong favourites. Stoke are priced around 2.52, which implies roughly a 40% chance of victory, while Swansea sit at 3.01, or about 33% in probability terms. The draw is available at 3.4, translating to close to 29%, reflecting a fixture the bookmakers see as fairly open. The relatively narrow gap between the two match-result prices suggests a competitive contest rather than a mismatch. Our model does not flag a value pick on the match result; instead its recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.1, with market-implied confidence around 45%. Notably, that selection carries a negative value edge of -4.84%, meaning the current price sits slightly below what the model considers fair. Bettors should weigh that context carefully before committing any stake.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.1, reflecting an expectation of an open game. However, with a negative value edge of -4.84% and implied confidence of only about 45%, this is a speculative rather than a strong pick. Stake modestly and treat the price with caution.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 19:00 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers | 1.59 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| 15 Aug 11:30 | Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Lincoln City | 1.37 | 5.50 | 9.80 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Norwich City v West Bromwich Albion | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Portsmouth v Queens Park Rangers | 2.31 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Charlton Athletic v Derby County | 2.78 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Bristol City v Millwall | 2.64 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| 15 Aug 16:30 | Sheffield United v Birmingham City | 2.58 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.12, with a 45% confidence rating.
Stoke City are the favourites at 2.52, implying about a 40% chance. Swansea City are priced at 3.01, roughly 33%, so the edge is modest.
The best available draw price is 3.4 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 29% probability of the game ending level.
No match-result value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.1 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.84%, so the price is slightly below fair value.
Stoke City vs Swansea City takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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