League One · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Stockport County are priced at 1.41 to win, implying a win probability of roughly 71 percent, making them clear favourites
Peterborough United's 7.27 price implies just under 14 percent, reflecting a modest chance according to the market
The draw at 5.34 implies around 18-19 percent, a live but secondary outcome behind a home win
The recommended Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.83 carries a 57 percent implied confidence and a 3.4 percent value edge, the only market flagged as offering value here
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 10.02 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.08 |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 11.03 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
| 3-0 | 6.0% | 16.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.99 and 1.09. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SCF | X | 2 · PU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.39 | 5.50 | 7.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.29 | 7.24 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.35 | 5.25 | 7.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.15 | 6.84 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Stockport County host Peterborough United in a League One fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Best odds of 1.41 on Stockport imply a win probability of roughly 71 percent, a stark contrast to Peterborough's 7.27 price, which points to just under 14 percent. The draw sits at 5.34, implying around 18-19 percent, a reflection of how one-sided the bookmakers view this contest. Away from the match-result market, our model flags value elsewhere: Under 3.5 goals at 1.83, priced with a market-implied confidence of 57 percent and a calculated edge of 3.4 percent. That suggests the goals market may be a more balanced avenue for value than trying to back either side to win outright, especially given how heavily the result odds already favour the home side.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Stockport County, leaving limited value in the result market itself. The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.83 offers a modest 3.4 percent edge with 57 percent implied confidence, a reasonable but not risk-free option given goals markets can swing on a single late strike.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Wycombe Wanderers v Reading | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.73 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Bradford City v Barnsley | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley FC | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Doncaster Rovers v Oxford United | 2.03 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Cambridge United v Wimbledon | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Notts County v Blackpool | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Plymouth Argyle v Burton Albion | 1.64 | 4.05 | 5.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 47% confidence rating.
Stockport County are strongly favoured, with best odds of 1.41 implying a win probability of roughly 71 percent, compared to Peterborough United's 7.27 price implying just under 14 percent.
The draw is priced at 5.34 with Pinnacle, which implies a probability of around 18-19 percent.
No value was flagged in the match-result market, but the model highlights Under 3.5 goals at 1.83 as a value pick, with a 3.4 percent edge and 57 percent implied confidence.
Stockport County FC vs Peterborough United takes place Sat · 14:00 in the League One.
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