Scottish Premiership · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
St Mirren are the favourites at 2.34 (about 43% implied), ahead of St Johnstone at 3.1 (roughly 32%).
The gap between the two sides is modest, signalling a reasonably balanced match rather than a mismatch.
The draw at 3.6 implies close to 28%, a fairly standard price for an evenly matched Premiership fixture.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 sits at around 50% implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -3.26%.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Johnstone | 3.05 | Betfair | 32.8% |
| St Mirren | 2.38 | Pinnacle | 42.0% |
| Draw | 3.50 | Coolbet | 28.6% |
This Scottish Premiership meeting between St Mirren and St Johnstone sees the home side installed as narrow favourites. St Mirren are priced at 2.34 with Pinnacle, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 43%, while St Johnstone sit at 3.1 (about 32%) with Coolbet. The draw is offered at 3.6, implying close to 28%. Those numbers point to a contest the market considers competitive rather than one-sided, with St Mirren edging the balance thanks to home advantage. Our model's attention is not on the outright result but on the goals market: it recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 with Pinnacle, a line priced around an even 50% chance of three or more goals. It is worth noting this pick carries a negative value edge of -3.26%, meaning it sits slightly below fair value on the numbers rather than representing a clear market inefficiency.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.92, essentially a coin-flip proposition at 50% implied probability. With a negative value edge of -3.26%, this is a modest-confidence pick priced slightly below fair value, so treat it as speculative and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 14:00 | Dundee FC v Aberdeen | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.66 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Kilmarnock v Celtic | 7.40 | 5.60 | 1.43 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Hearts v Dundee United | 1.62 | 4.30 | 5.90 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Motherwell v Falkirk F.C. | 1.82 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| 9 Aug 15:00 | Rangers v Hibernian | 1.55 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 50% confidence rating.
St Mirren are the favourites at 2.34 with Pinnacle, implying roughly a 43% chance, compared with St Johnstone at 3.1 (about 32%).
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of close to 28%.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 actually shows a negative value edge of -3.26%, so it sits slightly below fair value on the numbers.
St Mirren vs St Johnstone takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Scottish Premiership.
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