English ⚽ MLS 🕒 20 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.70
LostResult
3-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
61%Pre-match conf.
-3.41%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
St. Louis City SC are priced at 1.76, implying roughly 57 percent win probability and clear home favouritism.
02
Toronto FC's best price of 4.8 corresponds to an implied probability near 21 percent, with the model's fair probability estimate at 21 percent and a 3.09 percent edge.
03
The draw sits at 4.3, implying about 23 percent, close to Toronto FC's own implied chance.
04
The model's top-rated angle is Under 3.5 goals at 1.7, carrying 61 percent implied confidence and a 4.45 percent value edge, the largest edge among the listed options.
Team form
SLC St. Louis City SC WWDWD
20 Sept 26 vs Toronto FC 3-1
13 Sept 26 vs Minnesota United FC 4-2
10 Sept 26 @ Portland Timbers 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3-1
30 Aug 26 vs FC Dallas 3-3
TF Toronto FC LLWDW
20 Sept 26 @ St. Louis City SC 1-3
12 Sept 26 @ Orlando City SC 0-3
9 Sept 26 vs Nashville SC 2-1
5 Sept 26 vs Chicago Fire 4-4
22 Aug 26 @ Inter Miami CF 2-1
Head-to-head: St. Louis City SC v Toronto FC
W 20 Sept 26
St. Louis City SC 3-1 Toronto FCMLS
W/D/L shown from St. Louis City SC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
St. Louis City SC vs Toronto FC: pre-match preview
St. Louis City SC host Toronto FC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. At 1.76, St. Louis City's price implies a win probability of roughly 57 percent, making them clear favourites over both Toronto FC, priced at 4.8 (about 21 percent implied), and the draw at 4.3 (around 23 percent implied). That gap suggests bookmakers expect St. Louis City to control proceedings, though the draw and away prices leave room for value hunters. Rather than backing the match result outright, our model points to the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.7, a bet built on projected match tempo rather than which side wins. Toronto FC's price also shows a modest edge against the model's fair-value estimate, worth noting for those willing to back the underdog at longer odds.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.7 stands out as the model's preferred angle, backed by a 61 percent confidence read and a 4.45 percent edge versus market pricing. It sidesteps the lopsided match-result market while still reflecting the data. As with any bet, it carries risk and should be sized with sensible bankroll management.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for St. Louis City SC vs Toronto FC?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.70.
Who is favourite between St. Louis City SC and Toronto FC?+
St. Louis City SC are the clear market favourites at 1.76, implying about a 57 percent win probability, compared with Toronto FC's 4.8 price implying roughly 21 percent.
What is the draw priced at in this MLS fixture?+
The draw is available at 4.3, which implies a probability of approximately 23 percent based on the odds provided.
Is there value in backing Toronto FC to win?+
The data shows Toronto FC's best price of 4.8 against a fair probability estimate of 21 percent, producing a 3.09 percent edge, though it remains a lower-probability outcome according to the market.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).