MLS · Thu · 00:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
St. Louis City SC are the market favourite at 2.05 (about 49% implied), ahead of Sporting Kansas City at 3.26 (about 31%).
The draw is the longest option at 4.33, implying roughly 23% and reflecting a spread outcome distribution.
The recommended Under 3.0 goals at 2.03 carries a market-implied confidence near 46%.
The value edge on that Under pick is negative at -5.73%, so no selection cleared the value threshold.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.33 | +13.8% | 26% | 66 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City | 3.26 | MyBookie.ag | 30.7% |
| St. Louis City SC | 2.05 | Coolbet | 48.8% |
| Draw | 4.33 | 1xBet | 23.1% |
This MLS fixture sends Sporting Kansas City against St. Louis City SC, and the market has a clear preference for the visitors. St. Louis are priced around 2.05, which implies a win probability near 49%, while Sporting Kansas City sit at 3.26, or roughly 31% in implied terms. The draw is comparatively long at 4.33, translating to about 23%. That spread points to a market that sees St. Louis as the more likely winner without treating them as an overwhelming favourite, leaving genuine uncertainty across all three outcomes. Rather than backing the match result, our model leans toward the goals market with Under 3.0 goals at 2.03, carried at a market-implied confidence of around 46%. Note that the calculated value edge here is negative at -5.73%, so this is flagged as a preference rather than a standout value spot heading into kick-off.
Verdict: The model prefers Under 3.0 goals at 2.03, a moderate lean rather than a value play, since the edge sits at -5.73%. Treat it as a low-conviction total on a match the market rates as competitive. Stake responsibly and keep it within a sensible bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 46% confidence rating.
St. Louis City SC are the favourite at 2.05, implying roughly a 49% chance. Sporting Kansas City are priced at 3.26, or about 31%.
The draw is available at 4.33 with 1xBet, which implies around a 23% probability and is the longest of the three match-result options.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 3.0 goals at 2.03 actually shows a negative edge of -5.73%, so it is a preference rather than a value bet.
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City SC takes place Thu · 00:00 in the MLS.
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