Eredivisie · Sun · 10:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Feyenoord are favourites at 1.72, an implied probability of roughly 58%, marking a sizeable gap over the field.
Sparta Rotterdam at 4.8 (about 21%) and the draw at 4.3 (about 23%) are priced closely, reflecting the market's view of the underdog.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.33 carries a market-implied confidence of around 41%.
That goals bet shows a negative value edge of -4.09%, so it is flagged as below the value threshold rather than a market-beating price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.6% | 9.42 |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.96 |
| 0-2 | 7.5% | 13.30 |
| 2-1 | 6.7% | 14.84 |
| 2-2 | 6.1% | 16.50 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.27 and 1.80. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam to win | 5.10 | +7.1% | 21% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Sparta Rotterdam's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.72 | Unibet (NL) | 58.1% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 5.10 | Unibet (NL) | 19.6% |
| Draw | 4.30 | Coolbet | 23.3% |
This Eredivisie meeting sees Feyenoord travel to face Sparta Rotterdam, and the market leaves little doubt about who it prefers. At a best price of 1.72, Feyenoord are the clear favourites, with those odds implying roughly a 58% chance of taking the three points. Sparta Rotterdam sit as the outsiders at 4.8, translating to around a 21% implied probability, while the draw is priced at 4.3, or about 23%. That price structure paints Feyenoord as strong but not overwhelming favourites in this derby. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 2.33. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 41%, though it currently shows a negative value edge of -4.09%, meaning the number sits slightly below what the market demands. It is a preview built entirely on the pricing, so treat it as one input among several.
Verdict: The model points to Over 3.5 goals at 2.33, but with a market-implied confidence near 41% and a negative value edge of -4.09%, this is a higher-variance selection priced slightly against you. Treat it as a speculative angle rather than a value play, and stake within your means.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v Excelsior | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar | 1.52 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| 8 Aug 16:45 | Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II | 1.71 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| 8 Aug 18:00 | PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard | 1.24 | 8.60 | 14.50 |
| 8 Aug 19:00 | AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Groningen v FC Utrecht | 2.43 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | FC Zwolle v Ajax | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| 9 Aug 14:45 | Heerenveen v FC Twente Enschede | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.19 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with a 41% confidence rating.
Feyenoord are the favourites at a best price of 1.72, which implies about a 58% chance of winning. Sparta Rotterdam are outsiders at 4.8, around 21%.
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 23% probability. That is very close to Sparta Rotterdam's win price of 4.8.
The Over 3.5 goals selection at 2.33 has a market-implied confidence of about 41% but a negative value edge of -4.09%, so it does not clear our value threshold. It should be seen as a speculative pick rather than a value bet.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord takes place Sun · 10:15 in the Eredivisie.
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