Eliteserien · Today · 17:16 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Bodø/Glimt are priced at 1.97 (implied probability about 50.8 percent), making them clear market favourites over SK Brann at 3.5 (about 28.6 percent).
The draw at 4.12 implies roughly 24.3 percent, sitting between the two teams' implied chances and reflecting a competitive but favourite-leaning match.
The combined implied probabilities sum to just over 100 percent, indicating a relatively tight bookmaker margin on the result market.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.81 carries a negative value edge of -7.78 percent, meaning the model does not currently rate it as good value despite its 51 percent confidence figure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 10.70 |
| 0-2 | 7.0% | 14.25 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
| 1-3 | 6.4% | 15.63 |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | 15.65 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.35 and 2.03. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SB | X | 2 · BOD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.00 | 2.88 | 7.20 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 2.88 | 6.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.91 | 2.80 | 6.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 2.71 | 4.31 |
| Tipico | 1.85 | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.80 | 2.70 | 5.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eliteserien action pits SK Brann against Bodø/Glimt, with the market clearly favouring the visitors. Bodø/Glimt are priced at 1.97, which implies a win probability of roughly 50.8 percent, making them the strongest side on paper. SK Brann sit at 3.5 (about 28.6 percent implied), while the draw is priced at 4.12, translating to roughly 24.3 percent. Those numbers show a meaningful gap between the two sides without Bodø/Glimt being an overwhelming lock. Away from the result market, the model's featured angle is a goals-total play: Under 3.5 goals at 1.81, carrying a model confidence of 51 percent. Notably, the value edge on this selection comes in negative at -7.78 percent, meaning the price does not currently look favourable relative to the model's own estimate. No side markets cleared the value threshold this time, so bettors weighing this fixture are working with a fairly efficiently priced market overall.
Verdict: The featured selection is Under 3.5 goals at 1.81, with the model assigning it 51 percent confidence. However, the -7.78 percent value edge indicates the price is not favourable relative to the model's own assessment, so this should be treated as a moderate-risk, non-value angle rather than a strong recommendation.
Our tip is SK Brann to win at odds of 2.18, with a 50% confidence rating.
Bodø/Glimt are favoured by the market at odds of 1.97, which implies a win probability of about 50.8 percent, compared with SK Brann's 3.5 (about 28.6 percent).
The draw is priced at 4.12, implying a probability of roughly 24.3 percent.
No standard value picks against the market consensus met the site's threshold. The model does highlight Under 3.5 goals at 1.81, but its value edge is negative at -7.78 percent, so it is not flagged as strong value despite a 51 percent confidence rating.
SK Brann vs Bodø/Glimt takes place Today · 17:16 in the Eliteserien.
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