English ⚽ J1 League 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.25 goals
Odds
1.91
WonResult
1-0Final score
+0.91uProfit
58%Pre-match conf.
-0.52%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Match-result odds are closely bunched, 2.53 for Avispa Fukuoka, 2.9 for Shimizu S Pulse and 3.3 for the draw, implying no dominant favourite.
02
Implied probabilities sit around 39.5 percent for Avispa Fukuoka, 34.5 percent for Shimizu S Pulse and 30.3 percent for a draw.
03
The recommended Under 2.25 goals bet at 1.91 carries a 9.88 percent value edge and 58 percent modelled confidence, the clearest statistical signal in the data provided.
04
No standout value picks were identified in the standard 1X2 market, reinforcing that the goals total looks like the more efficient angle here.
Team form
SSP Shimizu S Pulse WWLDL
19 Sept 26 vs JEF United Chiba 2-1
12 Sept 26 vs Avispa Fukuoka 1-0
6 Sept 26 @ Kawasaki Frontale 1-3
2 Sept 26 vs FC Tokyo 1-1
22 Aug 26 @ Cerezo Osaka 0-1
AF Avispa Fukuoka LLDLL
19 Sept 26 vs Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC 0-1
12 Sept 26 @ Shimizu S Pulse 0-1
5 Sept 26 vs Mito HollyHock 1-1
2 Sept 26 vs Urawa Red Diamonds 2-3
22 Aug 26 @ Kashima Antlers 2-3
Head-to-head: Shimizu S Pulse v Avispa Fukuoka
W 12 Sept 26
Shimizu S Pulse 1-0 Avispa FukuokaJ1 League
W/D/L shown from Shimizu S Pulse's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Shimizu S Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka: pre-match preview
Shimizu S Pulse host Avispa Fukuoka in a J1 League fixture where the betting market leans, but not decisively, toward the visitors. Avispa Fukuoka are priced at 2.53 with the best odds, implying roughly 39.5 percent win probability, while Shimizu S Pulse sit at 2.9 (about 34.5 percent) and the draw is offered at 3.3 (around 30.3 percent). That spread points to a fairly tight three-way market rather than a clear favourite. Rather than picking a side in the result market, our model's recommendation centres on the total goals line, flagging Under 2.25 goals at 1.91 as the standout angle, with a modelled confidence of 58 percent and a value edge of 9.88 percent against the market price. It suggests the goals market may currently offer better relative value than trying to call the match outcome outright.
Verdict: The data points most clearly to the Under 2.25 goals selection at 1.91, backed by a modest but genuine 9.88 percent edge and 58 percent confidence. It is not a certainty, and the tight three-way match-result market shows no side has a strong statistical edge, so stake sizing should stay measured.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of +0.91 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 12 Sept 26
Under 2.0 goalsfinal score 1-0
1.87 +0.87u Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Shimizu S Pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka?+
Our tip was Under 2.25 goals at odds of 1.91.
Who is the favourite between Shimizu S Pulse and Avispa Fukuoka?+
Avispa Fukuoka carry the shorter price at 2.53, implying about 39.5 percent win probability, making them the market's marginal favourite over Shimizu S Pulse at 2.9 (roughly 34.5 percent).
What are the odds on the draw in this J1 League match?+
The best available draw price is 3.3, which implies around a 30.3 percent chance, keeping the draw a live outcome in what is a closely priced three-way market.
Is there value in betting on this fixture?+
The model does not flag value in the standard match-result market, but it highlights Under 2.25 goals at 1.91 as a value play, with a 9.88 percent edge and 58 percent modelled confidence.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-0 (+0.91u at flat stakes).