MLS · Sun · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Seattle Sounders are priced at 2.12, implying about 47% win probability and marking them the clear market favourite.
Minnesota United's 3.27 price implies roughly 31% probability, positioning them as moderate underdogs.
The draw at 3.94 implies close to 25% probability, a reasonably standard spread for a fixture with a clear favourite.
The Under 3.0 goals price of 1.98 carries a 48% implied probability but shows a 17.71% value edge according to the model, the strongest signal in the available data.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.18 |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 10.56 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.53 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.60 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.67 |
| 0-0 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.41 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SSF | X | 2 · MUF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.79 | 3.15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.25 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Coolbet | 2.10 | 3.85 | 3.10 |
| Betsson | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.13 | 3.64 | 3.02 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Seattle Sounders FC host Minnesota United FC in an MLS fixture where the betting market clearly leans toward the home side. Best odds of 2.12 on Seattle imply a win probability of roughly 47%, while Minnesota's 3.27 price points to a chance near 31%. The draw, priced at 3.94, sits around 25% implied probability, rounding out a fairly standard favourite-versus-underdog price structure with a realistic draw chance built in. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model highlights value in the goals market, recommending Under 3.0 goals at 1.98. That price reflects roughly a 48% market-implied probability of a low-scoring game, but the model calculates a notable edge of 17.71% against that price, suggesting the total-goals line may be undervaluing a tighter, lower-scoring contest between these two MLS sides.
Verdict: The data points away from a confident match-result pick and toward the Under 3.0 goals line, where the model sees a meaningful 17.71% edge versus the 1.98 price. It is not a certainty, just a market discrepancy worth noting; goals markets can swing quickly, so stake sizing should stay measured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Nashville SC v Toronto FC | 1.50 | 4.88 | 6.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.74, with a 54% confidence rating.
Seattle Sounders FC are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.12 compared to 3.27 for Minnesota United FC, implying about a 47% win probability for Seattle versus roughly 31% for Minnesota.
The draw is priced at 3.94 with the best available odds, which implies a probability of close to 25%.
The data does not flag value in the match-result market, but it does show value in the goals market: Under 3.0 goals at 1.98 carries a calculated edge of 17.71% versus its 48% implied probability.
Seattle Sounders FC vs Minnesota United FC takes place Sun · 00:30 in the MLS.
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