MLS · Thu · 01:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Seattle Sounders FC are strong favourites at 1.67, implying roughly a 60% win chance, with Austin FC at 4.76 (about 21%) as the clear underdogs.
The draw is priced at 4.49, near a 22% implied probability, but the model rates its fair chance closer to 26%, giving a 14.74% value edge.
Austin FC's 4.76 price also flags value, with a fair probability of about 23% against an implied 21%, an edge of 11.66%.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 2.01 carries a 47% model confidence but a negative -5.6% edge, so the price is slightly short of true value.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.49 | +13.8% | 25% | 66 |
| Austin FC to win | 4.80 | +10.9% | 23% | 62 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 4.80 | MyBookie.ag | 20.8% |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 1.67 | Coolbet | 59.9% |
| Draw | 4.49 | 1xBet | 22.3% |
Seattle Sounders FC host Austin FC in this MLS clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who the bookmakers favour. The Sounders are priced at 1.67 with Coolbet, which translates to roughly a 60% implied chance of taking the win on home soil. Austin FC are clear outsiders at 4.76 (about 21% implied), while the draw sits at 4.49, close to a 22% chance before margins. Our model's headline recommendation is Over 3.0 goals at 2.01, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 47%. Notably, that pick shows a negative value edge of -5.6%, meaning the price is not quite generous enough to represent standout value on the total. Where the model does flag an edge is on the outsiders and the stalemate, both of which appear underpriced relative to their fair probabilities. As always, weigh these numbers against your own read and stake responsibly.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 3.0 goals at 2.01, but with a -5.6% edge this is a marginal call rather than a value spot. If you prefer the numbers with a positive edge, the draw at 4.49 and Austin FC at 4.76 look better priced. Treat all as higher-risk plays.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 47% confidence rating.
Seattle Sounders FC are the favourites at 1.67 with Coolbet, implying about a 60% win chance. Austin FC are outsiders at 4.76, roughly a 21% implied probability.
The draw is available at 4.49 with 1xBet, which implies around a 22% chance. Our model rates its fair probability at 26%, flagging a 14.74% value edge.
The model identifies value on the draw (4.49, 14.74% edge) and Austin FC (4.76, 11.66% edge). The recommended Over 3.0 goals at 2.01 actually shows a negative -5.6% edge, so it is less compelling on price.
Seattle Sounders FC vs Austin FC takes place Thu · 01:30 in the MLS.
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