Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Stuttgart's 1.68 price implies roughly a 59.5 percent win probability, the strongest signal in this market
Paderborn's 4.92 price and Stuttgart's short odds suggest the market treats this as a heavily one-sided fixture
The draw, priced at 4.7, implies about 21.3 percent, only marginally above Paderborn's own win chance
Paderborn's outright odds carry a modest value edge of 3.94 percent versus the model's fair probability estimate, while the Under 3.5 goals selection shows a slightly negative edge of -1.56 percent despite 51 percent implied confidence
| Bookmaker | 1 · SP | X | 2 · VS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.83 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.70 | 4.60 | 1.63 |
| Codere (IT) | 4.60 | 4.50 | 1.64 |
| Tipico | 4.80 | 4.50 | 1.60 |
| Pinnacle | 4.61 | 4.48 | 1.62 |
| Nordic Bet | 4.90 | 4.15 | 1.62 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action sees SC Paderborn host VfB Stuttgart, with the betting market leaving little doubt about who is expected to come out on top. Stuttgart's best price of 1.68 implies a win probability of roughly 59.5 percent, making them clear favourites, while Paderborn's 4.92 price points to just a 20.3 percent chance and the draw at 4.7 sits close behind at 21.3 percent. Those numbers suggest a lopsided contest on paper, at least according to the odds compilers. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured selection is Under 3.5 goals at 1.92, priced with a market-implied confidence of 51 percent, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -1.56 percent. Separately, Paderborn's outright price stands out as a value angle, with a fair probability estimate of 21 percent against the market's 20.3 percent implied figure, translating to a 3.94 percent edge for bettors willing to back the underdog.
Verdict: The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.92 reflects a roughly coin-flip confidence level of 51 percent, but its slightly negative value edge means it is not a clear-cut market inefficiency. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk option rather than a standout value play, and bankroll discipline is advised as with any selection.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
| 11 Oct 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.25 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 48% confidence rating.
Stuttgart are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.68, which implies about a 59.5 percent win probability compared to Paderborn's 20.3 percent.
The best available draw price is 4.7, implying roughly a 21.3 percent chance of the match ending level.
According to the model, Paderborn's fair win probability is estimated at 21 percent against a market-implied 20.3 percent, giving a value edge of 3.94 percent at the best available price of 4.92, though this remains an underdog bet with lower overall win likelihood.
SC Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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