Bundesliga · Today · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Hoffenheim's 1.71 price implies roughly 58.5% win probability, making them the clear market favourite over Paderborn
Paderborn and the draw share identical best prices of 4.75, each implying just over 21% probability
The draw carries a 12.9% value edge against its 24% fair probability, the largest gap identified in this dataset
Paderborn's own win price shows an 11.27% edge versus a 23% fair probability, suggesting the market may be underrating the hosts
The recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.85 has a slightly negative value edge of -3.9%, indicating the price is not obviously favourable by the model's own measure
| Bookmaker | 1 · SP | X | 2 · TH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.81 | 3.30 | 6.60 |
| Matchbook | 1.75 | 3.30 | 7.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.75 | 3.30 | 6.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.25 | 6.22 |
| Suprabets | 1.67 | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.75 | 3.05 | 5.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action sees SC Paderborn host TSG Hoffenheim, and the betting market leaves little doubt about who starts as favourite. Hoffenheim's best price of 1.71 implies a win probability of roughly 58.5%, a clear reflection of market confidence in the away side. Paderborn, by contrast, sit at 4.75, implying just over 21%, with the draw priced identically at 4.75 for the same implied share. Within this framework, our model steers away from the straight match-result markets and instead flags Over 3.25 goals at 1.85 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 52% but a modest negative value edge of -3.9%, meaning the price does not fully align with the model's fair value estimate. Elsewhere, the data highlights pockets of perceived value on both the draw and a Paderborn win, each showing fair probabilities above what the market currently prices in, worth weighing for bettors comfortable with the underlying risk.
Verdict: The Over 3.25 goals pick at 1.85 is the model's top suggestion, but its -3.9% edge means it is not a clear-cut value play by the model's own standards. Bettors intrigued by the draw or Paderborn's outsider price may find the flagged value edges more compelling, though both carry the higher risk typical of longer-priced outcomes. Stake sizes should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
| 11 Oct 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 4.25 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 54% confidence rating.
Hoffenheim are the clear market favourite, priced at 1.71, which implies a win probability of about 58.5%. Paderborn are priced at 4.75, implying roughly 21%.
The draw is available at 4.75, the same price as a Paderborn win, implying just over 21% probability. The model's fair value estimate puts the draw's true chance closer to 24%, a 12.9% edge.
The data flags two potential value spots away from the recommended bet: the draw at 4.75 with a 12.9% edge and Paderborn at 4.75 with an 11.27% edge. The model's actual top recommendation, Over 3.25 goals at 1.85, shows a slightly negative edge of -3.9%, so it is not flagged as strong value itself.
SC Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim takes place Today · 17:30 in the Bundesliga.
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