English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 30 Aug 2026
Our tip
Over 2.75 goals
Odds
1.93
WonResult
4-1Final score
+0.93uProfit
49%Pre-match conf.
-0.52%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Freiburg are the shorter price at 2.13 (about 47% implied), against Werder Bremen at 3.67 (roughly 27%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.85 with Coolbet, implying near 26% and pointing to a fairly open contest.
03
Our model gives Freiburg a 49% confidence, slightly above the market-implied figure, producing a value edge of 4.76%.
04
No value picks cleared our threshold beyond the recommended home-win lean, underlining a cautious read.
Team form
SF SC Freiburg DWWWW
19 Sept 26 @ Frankfurt 2-2
12 Sept 26 vs M'gladbach 5-0
5 Sept 26 @ SC Paderborn 1-0
30 Aug 26 vs Bremen 4-1
16 May 26 vs RB Leipzig 4-1
WB Werder Bremen WDWLL
19 Sept 26 vs Augsburg 3-2
12 Sept 26 @ 1. FC Köln 1-1
5 Sept 26 vs RB Leipzig 3-1
30 Aug 26 @ Freiburg 1-4
16 May 26 vs Dortmund 0-2
Head-to-head: SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen
Full H2H history → W 30 Aug 26
Freiburg 4-1 BremenBundesliga
W 7 Feb 26
Freiburg 1-0 BremenBundesliga
W 20 Sept 25
Bremen 0-3 FreiburgBundesliga
W/D/L shown from SC Freiburg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen: pre-match preview
This Bundesliga clash sees SC Freiburg host Werder Bremen with the home side installed as market favourites. Freiburg are priced at 2.13 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 47%. Werder Bremen, at a best available 3.67, sit closer to a 27% implied chance, while the draw is quoted at 3.85 with Coolbet, around 26%. The gap between the two sides is clear but far from decisive, marking this as a match where the home advantage tilts things toward Freiburg without making the outcome a foregone conclusion. Our model leans toward Freiburg to win at 2.13, assigning a market-implied confidence of about 49% and flagging a modest value edge of 4.76% over the price. That edge is slim, so this is a lean rather than a standout play, and the visitors clearly retain a realistic route to a result of their own.
Verdict: The recommended bet is SC Freiburg to win at 2.13, supported by a small 4.76% value edge and a model confidence near 49%. It is a moderate-risk lean rather than a strong call, since the price implies close to a coin flip. Stake responsibly and treat the edge as marginal.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 4-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.93 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 30 Aug 26
SC Freiburg to winfinal score 4-1
2.11 +1.11u V 29 Aug 26
Over 2.5 goalsVoid — fixture rescheduled and re-listed
1.68 0.00u V 29 Aug 26
SC Freiburg to winVoid — fixture rescheduled and re-listed
2.08 0.00u Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?+
Our tip was Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.93.
Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?+
SC Freiburg are the favourites at 2.13, implying about a 47% chance, while Werder Bremen are priced at 3.67, around 27%.
What are the draw odds for this Bundesliga match?+
The draw is available at 3.85 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of roughly 26%.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our model identifies a modest 4.76% value edge on SC Freiburg to win at 2.13, with confidence near 49%. No other selection cleared our value threshold, so it is a slim edge rather than a strong signal.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 4-1 (+0.93u at flat stakes).