Bundesliga · Sun · 15:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Freiburg's 1.67 price implies roughly 60 percent win probability, making them clear market favourites over Schalke.
Schalke's 5.23 price implies just under 19 percent, reflecting a market view of them as significant underdogs.
The draw at 4.41 implies about 23 percent, sitting between the two win probabilities as is typical for a lopsided match-up.
The Over 3.0 goals selection at 2.03 carries a 47 percent implied confidence from the model but shows a negative value edge of about -4 percent, suggesting no clear pricing advantage.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SF | X | 2 · FS0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.04 | 5.29 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.68 | 3.94 | 5.15 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.84 | 5.20 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
SC Freiburg host FC Schalke 04 in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Freiburg are priced at 1.67 for the win, translating to an implied probability of roughly 60 percent, while Schalke's 5.23 price points to just under 19 percent. The draw sits at 4.41, implying around 23 percent. Together these prices show a market strongly tilted toward the home side, with Schalke viewed as a distant outsider and Schalke's promotion or survival form not something we have data on here. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle is a goals-based selection: Over 3.0 goals at 2.03, which the model flags as its recommended play, though it comes with only a modest implied confidence and a slightly negative value edge, meaning the market price is close to, or marginally under, what the model considers fair.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Freiburg on paper, but the model's featured angle is Over 3.0 goals at 2.03 rather than the match result. With confidence around 47 percent and a slightly negative value edge, this is a moderate-risk selection rather than a standout value bet, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
SC Freiburg are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.67, which implies roughly a 60 percent chance of victory according to the odds.
The draw is priced at 4.41, implying an approximate 23 percent probability based on the best available odds.
No standout value picks were identified against the match-result market. The recommended angle is Over 3.0 goals at 2.03, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of about -4 percent, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence option rather than a clear market inefficiency.
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 takes place Sun · 15:30 in the Bundesliga.
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