English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 16 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.02
WonResult
1-1Final score
+1.02uProfit
52%Pre-match conf.
+7.45%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (NL)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Sao Paulo's 1.7 price makes them the market favourite at roughly 59% implied probability, well ahead of Coritiba.
02
Coritiba are the outsiders at 5.5, implying only around 18%, a sizeable gap of over 40 percentage points between the two sides.
03
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Coolbet, implying about a 27% chance of the points being shared.
04
Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 shows a market-implied confidence near 53%, but its value edge is negative at -4.09%, so no edge over the market.
Team form
SP Sao Paulo WLWWL
20 Sept 26 vs Internacional 1-0
12 Sept 26 @ Palmeiras 0-2
5 Sept 26 vs Mineiro 2-0
29 Aug 26 vs Bragantino 2-1
23 Aug 26 @ Chapecoense 0-1
COR Coritiba LDLWW
19 Sept 26 @ Vasco da Gama 0-5
12 Sept 26 vs Paranaense 3-3
6 Sept 26 vs Mirassol 1-2
31 Aug 26 @ Clube do Remo 3-2
23 Aug 26 vs Corinthians 2-1
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo v Coritiba
Full H2H history → D 16 Aug 26
São Paulo 1-1 CoritibaBrasileirão
W 25 Feb 26
Coritiba 0-1 São PauloBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Sao Paulo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba: pre-match preview
This Brasileirão fixture sees Sao Paulo host Coritiba, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Sao Paulo are priced at 1.7 to win, translating to an implied probability of roughly 59%, while Coritiba drift out to 5.5, or about 18% in probability terms. The draw sits at 3.75, which implies around 27%. Those numbers frame Sao Paulo as clear home favourites, with Coritiba viewed as the outsider. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks at the goals market and points to Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 53%. It is worth noting the value edge here is negative at -4.09%, meaning the price is not offering an advantage over the market. No selections cleared our value threshold for this game, so this preview is more about interpreting the pricing than chasing an edge.
Verdict: The model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 as the pick, but with a negative value edge and no selections above threshold, this is a marginal call rather than a strong recommendation. Treat it as a low-conviction lean and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.02 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02.
Who is the favourite for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?+
Sao Paulo are the clear favourites at 1.7, implying roughly a 59% chance of victory. Coritiba are priced at 5.5, around 18%.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The best available draw price is 3.75 with Coolbet, which implies about a 27% probability of the game ending level.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 actually carries a negative value edge of -4.09%, meaning the price does not beat the market.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+1.02u at flat stakes).