Brasileirão · Sun · 00:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Sao Paulo's 1.7 price makes them the market favourite at roughly 59% implied probability, well ahead of Coritiba.
Coritiba are the outsiders at 5.5, implying only around 18%, a sizeable gap of over 40 percentage points between the two sides.
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Coolbet, implying about a 27% chance of the points being shared.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 shows a market-implied confidence near 53%, but its value edge is negative at -4.09%, so no edge over the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.8% | 7.84 |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.06 |
| 2-0 | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 11.56 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.88 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.47 and 0.97. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sao Paulo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 5.50 | 1xBet | 18.2% |
| Sao Paulo | 1.70 | 1xBet | 58.8% |
| Draw | 3.75 | Coolbet | 26.7% |
This Brasileirão fixture sees Sao Paulo host Coritiba, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Sao Paulo are priced at 1.7 to win, translating to an implied probability of roughly 59%, while Coritiba drift out to 5.5, or about 18% in probability terms. The draw sits at 3.75, which implies around 27%. Those numbers frame Sao Paulo as clear home favourites, with Coritiba viewed as the outsider. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks at the goals market and points to Under 2.5 goals at 1.81, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 53%. It is worth noting the value edge here is negative at -4.09%, meaning the price is not offering an advantage over the market. No selections cleared our value threshold for this game, so this preview is more about interpreting the pricing than chasing an edge.
Verdict: The model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 as the pick, but with a negative value edge and no selections above threshold, this is a marginal call rather than a strong recommendation. Treat it as a low-conviction lean and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 47% confidence rating.
Sao Paulo are the clear favourites at 1.7, implying roughly a 59% chance of victory. Coritiba are priced at 5.5, around 18%.
The best available draw price is 3.75 with Coolbet, which implies about a 27% probability of the game ending level.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.81 actually carries a negative value edge of -4.09%, meaning the price does not beat the market.
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba takes place Sun · 00:00 in the Brasileirão.
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