Brasileirão · Thu · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Flamengo are priced at 1.92, implying roughly 52 percent win probability, the clearest signal in this market.
Santos at 4.0 imply only about 25 percent, positioning them as the clear underdog on paper.
The draw at 3.69 sits between the two win prices, implying close to 27 percent, a fairly standard spread for a game with a short-priced favourite.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation carries a negative value edge of about -4.04 percent, meaning the market price is slightly ahead of the model's own 51 percent confidence reading.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.78 |
| 0-1 | 10.3% | 9.71 |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 0-2 | 8.7% | 11.45 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
| 2-1 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.11 and 1.69. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Santos's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SAN | X | 2 · FLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.98 | 3.63 | 1.94 |
| Betsson | 3.95 | 3.55 | 1.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.85 | 3.52 | 1.88 |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.95 | 3.55 | 1.83 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.95 | 3.45 | 1.85 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Santos host Flamengo in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Flamengo are priced at 1.92 for the win, which implies a probability of just over 52 percent, while Santos sit out at 4.0 (around 25 percent) and the draw is quoted at 3.69 (about 27 percent). Those numbers point to a moderate-to-strong favourite tag for Flamengo without making them overwhelming. Away from the match-result market, the site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 as its recommended angle, translating to an implied probability near 53 percent. The model's own confidence sits at 51 percent, meaning the numbers don't fully back up the price, which is worth keeping in mind before staking on this Brasileirão clash.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.88 is the standout angle from the data, but its own -4.04 percent edge shows the market isn't clearly underpricing it. It's a reasonable, moderate-risk option rather than a strong value play, so bettors should size stakes accordingly and treat it as one option among several.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Flamengo are the market favourites at odds of 1.92, which implies a win probability of just over 52 percent, compared with Santos at 4.0 (about 25 percent).
The draw is available at 3.69, implying a probability of roughly 27 percent based on the odds given.
The main flagged angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.88, though it carries a negative value edge of about -4.04 percent, meaning it is not a clear-cut value bet by the model's own measure. No match-result value picks met the site's threshold for this fixture.
Santos vs Flamengo takes place Thu · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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