English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 13 Sept 2026
Our tip
Santos to win
Odds
2.67
WonResult
2-1Final score
+1.67uProfit
40%Pre-match conf.
-8.56%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Santos are the nominal favourites at 2.49, implying close to 40% win probability, ahead of Cruzeiro's 34.5% at 2.90.
02
The draw is priced at 3.40 (about 29.4% implied), making it the outcome the market deems least likely of the three.
03
The combined implied probabilities of the three result markets exceed 100%, reflecting normal bookmaker overround rather than a genuine mispricing.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 2.03 shows a -4.04% value edge, meaning the model's confidence (47%) is slightly below the price's implied probability (about 49%).
Team form
SAN Santos WWWWD
19 Sept 26 @ Clube do Remo 2-1
13 Sept 26 vs Cruzeiro 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ Internacional 3-2
30 Aug 26 @ Corinthians 1-0
23 Aug 26 vs Mirassol 1-1
CRU Cruzeiro LWLWW
13 Sept 26 @ Santos 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Paranaense 3-1
30 Aug 26 @ Vasco da Gama 1-3
22 Aug 26 vs Flamengo 2-1
16 Aug 26 @ Corinthians 2-1
Head-to-head: Santos v Cruzeiro
Full H2H history → W 13 Sept 26
Santos 2-1 CruzeiroBrasileirão
D 22 Mar 26
Cruzeiro 0-0 SantosBrasileirão
W 7 Dec 25
Santos 3-0 CruzeiroBrasileirão
W 10 Aug 25
Cruzeiro 1-2 SantosBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Santos's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Santos vs Cruzeiro: pre-match preview
Santos host Cruzeiro in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market gives a slight edge to the home side. Santos are priced at 2.49 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 40%, while Cruzeiro's best price of 2.90 with Coolbet points to about 34.5%. The draw sits at 3.40, implying near 29.4%, making it the least favoured outcome according to the odds. None of the three result markets stand out as a clear value opportunity based on the numbers supplied. Instead, the model's featured angle is the Over 2.5 Goals line at 2.03 with 1xBet. That price carries an implied probability near 49%, but the model's own confidence sits at 47%, producing a negative value edge of -4.04%. In short, the match-result market is fairly tight, and the highlighted goals bet does not currently show a statistical advantage over the bookmaker's price.
Verdict: The suggested Over 2.5 Goals bet at 2.03 lacks a positive edge by the model's own measure, with confidence trailing the implied probability by about four percentage points. It is not flagged as a value play, so bettors should treat it as a speculative option rather than a statistically favoured one, and size stakes accordingly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.67 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Santos vs Cruzeiro?+
Our tip was Santos to win at odds of 2.67.
Who is the favourite in the Santos vs Cruzeiro match?+
Santos are the marginal favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.49 which implies roughly a 40% win probability, compared to Cruzeiro's 2.90 (about 34.5%).
What is the draw priced at for this Brasileirão fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.40 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 29.4% probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes based on the odds given.
Is there value in betting on this Santos vs Cruzeiro match?+
Based on the data provided, no match-result selection clears the value threshold. The highlighted Over 2.5 Goals bet at 2.03 actually shows a negative value edge of -4.04%, so it is not a confirmed value opportunity either.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 2-1 (+1.67u at flat stakes).