Brasileirão · Sun · 21:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Santos are the market favourites at 2.45 (about 41% implied), ahead of Atletico Paranaense at 3.1 (about 32%).
The narrow price gap between the sides points to a competitive, closely matched fixture rather than a mismatch.
The draw is priced at 3.21, roughly 31% implied probability, so a stalemate is a realistic outcome the market respects.
Over 2.5 goals sits at 2.18 with around 44% implied confidence, but the value edge is negative at -4.17%, offering no pricing advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.63 |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | 9.11 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.78 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.77 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.18 and 1.19. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Santos's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 3.61 | BetOnline.ag | 27.7% |
| Santos | 2.22 | Betfair | 45.0% |
| Draw | 3.40 | Coolbet | 29.4% |
Santos host Atletico Paranaense in this Brasileirao meeting, and the market leans towards the home side. Santos are priced at 2.45, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 41%, while Atletico Paranaense sit at 3.1, or about 32%. The draw is quoted at 3.21, close to 31% in probability terms, underlining that bookmakers see this as a fairly open contest rather than a one-sided affair. The gap between the two teams is modest, so Santos are favourites but far from commanding ones. Our model's attention falls not on the match result but on the goals market, with a recommended look at Over 2.5 goals at 2.18. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 44%, though the value edge here is slightly negative at -4.17%, meaning the odds offer no clear pricing advantage. Approach the fixture with that context in mind and stake within your means.
Verdict: The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, reflecting an expectation of an open game around 44% implied. However, the negative value edge of -4.17% means there is no clear pricing edge here, so treat it as a modest-confidence lean rather than a standout play, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Bragantino-SP v Corinthians | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.13, with a 45% confidence rating.
Santos are the favourites at 2.45, an implied probability of roughly 41%, compared with Atletico Paranaense at 3.1, around 32%. The gap is modest, so Santos are only slight favourites.
The draw is priced at 3.21 with 1xBet, which equates to an implied probability of about 31%. That pricing suggests a stalemate is a genuine possibility in this fixture.
Our model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, but the value edge is negative at -4.17%, and no picks cleared the value threshold. There is no clear market advantage on offer here.
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense takes place Sun · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.
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