Liga MX · Sun · 01:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Pachuca are priced at 1.93, translating to an implied win probability of about 52 percent, the strongest of the three outcomes on offer.
Santos Laguna (3.45) and the draw (3.55) are closely matched in the odds, implying probabilities of roughly 29 percent and 28 percent respectively.
The bookmakers' combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent (around 109 percent), reflecting the standard overround built into the match-result market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.61 carries a 58 percent implied confidence from the model but shows a negative value edge of -7.39 percent, indicating the price is not favourable relative to the model's own assessment.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.23 |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | 9.25 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 10.83 |
| 0-2 | 8.2% | 12.18 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 14.06 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.12 and 1.52. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SL | X | 2 · PAC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE) | 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.93 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.93 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.35 | 3.40 | 1.87 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.20 | 3.30 | 1.81 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga MX action brings Santos Laguna up against Pachuca, and the betting market leaves little doubt about who the bookmakers expect to come out on top. Pachuca are priced at 1.93 with Unibet (SE), which converts to an implied probability of roughly 52 percent, making them clear favourites. Santos Laguna sit at 3.45 (about 29 percent) while the draw is priced similarly at 3.55 (around 28 percent), suggesting the home side and a stalemate are viewed as fairly close secondary outcomes. Away from the result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 58 percent. That said, the calculated value edge on this selection comes in at -7.39 percent, meaning the price does not currently look favourable by the model's own measure, so it should be treated as a directional lean rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 with 58 percent confidence, but its own value edge is negative at -7.39 percent, meaning the price does not stack up favourably by the model's metrics. Treat this as a moderate-risk lean rather than a strong recommendation, and size any stake with discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 21 Sept 02:10 | Querétaro v León | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:00 | Cruz Azul v Toluca | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 26 Sept 23:07 | Guadalajara v Querétaro | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 58% confidence rating.
Pachuca are the clear favourites according to the market, priced at 1.93 with Unibet (SE), which implies a win probability of roughly 52 percent. Santos Laguna and the draw are priced closer together at 3.45 and 3.55 respectively.
The draw is priced at 3.55 with Unibet (SE), implying a probability of approximately 28 percent, only slightly behind Santos Laguna's implied chance of winning.
No standout value picks were identified above the site's threshold for the match-result market. The model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.61, though this carries a negative value edge of -7.39 percent, so it should not be viewed as a confirmed value opportunity.
Santos Laguna vs Pachuca takes place Sun · 01:00 in the Liga MX.
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