Primeira Liga · Mon · 19:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Santa Clara are favourites at 1.95, implying about a 51% chance, while Nacional at 4.08 sit near 25%.
The draw is priced at 3.5, roughly a 29% implied probability, reflecting a competitive but hosts-leaning contest.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 carries a market-implied confidence of around 43%.
This selection shows a negative value edge of -4.74%, meaning the price offers no edge over the market.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.7% | 6.81 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.54 |
| 0-0 | 12.4% | 8.05 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.53 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.18 and 0.90. These six scorelines cover 68% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional to win | 4.20 | +4.8% | 25% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Santa Clara's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 4.20 | Tipico | 23.8% |
| Santa Clara | 1.96 | Betfair | 51.0% |
| Draw | 3.50 | Coolbet | 28.6% |
Santa Clara host Nacional in this Primeira Liga fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.95 with Coolbet, Santa Clara are priced as home favourites, implying roughly a 51% chance of victory before margin. Nacional are the clear outsiders at 4.08 with Pinnacle, translating to around a 25% implied probability, while the draw sits at 3.5, or about 29%. Those numbers point to a game the bookmakers see as tilted towards the hosts, but far from a foregone conclusion given the meaningful chances still attached to a Nacional win or a stalemate. Our model's attention here is not on the result but on the goals market: Over 2.5 goals is available at 2.2 with William Hill, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 43%. Note that this selection shows a negative value edge, so it warrants a cautious approach.
Verdict: The model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.2, but with an implied confidence near 43% and a negative value edge of -4.74%, this is a marginal call rather than a standout play. Treat it as higher risk, stake responsibly, and only back it if the goals angle suits you.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 19:15 | Estoril v Famalicão | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | CS Maritimo v Casa Pia | 2.48 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| 8 Aug 17:00 | Vitória SC v Arouca | 1.90 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
| 8 Aug 19:30 | CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon | 14.50 | 6.60 | 1.24 |
| 9 Aug 17:00 | FC Porto v Alverca | 1.21 | 7.80 | 16.50 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Benfica v Académico de Viseu | 1.13 | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Gil Vicente v Rio Ave FC | 2.01 | 3.57 | 4.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Moreirense FC v Braga | 5.20 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 33 | 27 | 4 | 2 | +47 | 85 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | +65 | 80 |
| 3 | SL Benfica | 33 | 22 | 11 | 0 | +46 | 77 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | +28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | +13 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +8 | 47 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -9 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -16 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril Praia | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Vitória SC | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | -18 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | -20 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | CD Nacional | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | -17 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -24 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -26 | 27 |
| 18 | AVS | 33 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -40 | 20 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 43% confidence rating.
Santa Clara are the favourites at a best price of 1.95 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 51% chance. Nacional are outsiders at 4.08, around 25%.
The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which equates to an implied probability of about 29%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.2 shows a negative value edge of -4.74%, so there is no clear value against the market. It is a marginal selection to approach with caution.
Santa Clara vs Nacional takes place Mon · 19:15 in the Primeira Liga.
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