Eliteserien · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Brann are favourites at 2.2 (implied around 45%), clearly shorter than Sandefjord at 3.05 (implied around 33%).
The draw is priced at 3.89, implying roughly a 26% chance and leaving this as a spread-out three-way market.
Our model rates Sandefjord's true chance near 35%, slightly above the market implication, producing a value edge of about 7.0%.
The value pick backs the underdog on price, not on the market's assessment of who is likelier to win.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 8.99 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.56 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.30 |
| 1-0 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 14.01 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 15.80 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.56 and 1.46. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SAN | X | 2 · SB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 3.28 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| 1xBet | 3.05 | 3.87 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 3.09 | 3.73 | 2.19 |
| GTbets | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.18 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.18 |
| Betsson | 3.05 | 3.65 | 2.18 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Eliteserien clash sends Sandefjord against SK Brann, and the market has a clear view of the pecking order. Brann are the favourites at 2.2 with 1xBet, a price that implies roughly a 45% chance of victory. Sandefjord are the outsiders at 3.05 with Nordic Bet, translating to about 33% in raw terms, while the draw sits at 3.89, or around 26%. Despite the visitors carrying favouritism, our model leans toward the home side, flagging Sandefjord to win at 3.05 as its recommended bet. The model reads that price as slightly generous, assigning a market-implied confidence of 35% against the shorter implied figure and identifying a value edge of about 7.0%. In short, this is a value-driven angle on the underdog rather than a call that Sandefjord are the stronger team on paper. The odds still frame Brann as the more likely winner.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Sandefjord to win at 3.05, an underdog play justified by a 7.0% value edge rather than favouritism. This is a higher-risk selection since the market still prices Brann as the more probable winner. Treat the stake accordingly and bet within your limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Vålerenga v Molde | 2.82 | 4.08 | 2.48 |
| 29 Aug 16:00 | Viking FK v Aalesund | 1.29 | 6.50 | 9.66 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Bodø/Glimt v Rosenborg | 1.36 | 5.80 | 8.60 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Tromso v Sarpsborg FK | 1.68 | 4.29 | 5.09 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | HamKam v Kristiansund BK | 1.95 | 3.93 | 4.20 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | IK Start v KFUM | 2.43 | 3.76 | 3.20 |
| 30 Aug 17:15 | Lillestrom v Fredrikstad FK | 1.73 | 4.19 | 5.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 62% confidence rating.
SK Brann are the favourites at 2.2, which implies about a 45% chance of winning. Sandefjord are the outsiders at 3.05, or roughly 33%.
The draw is priced at 3.89 with 1xBet, implying approximately a 26% probability of the game ending level.
Our model flags Sandefjord to win at 3.05 as the value pick, with a market-implied confidence of 35% and an estimated value edge of about 7.0%. No other selections cleared our value threshold.
Sandefjord vs SK Brann takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Eliteserien.
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