Liga Profesional · Sat · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
The match-result market is perfectly level, with San Lorenzo and Union Santa Fe both at 2.81, each implying about a 36% win chance.
The draw at 2.93 sits close behind at roughly 34% implied probability, underlining how evenly the market rates the game.
Our recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 reflects around 59% implied confidence, but the -5.12% value edge shows the price is a touch short of fair value.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market consensus, so there is no standout edge on offer here.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 2.85 | 1xBet | 35.1% |
| Union Santa Fe | 2.77 | 1xBet | 36.1% |
| Draw | 2.93 | 1xBet | 34.1% |
This Liga Profesional clash between San Lorenzo and Union Santa Fe arrives with the bookmaker unable to separate the two sides. Both teams sit at 2.81 for the match result, translating to an implied win probability of roughly 36% each, while the draw is priced at 2.93, or about 34%. In other words, the market treats this as close to a genuine coin toss, with no clear favourite emerging from the prices. Rather than picking a side, our model leans toward the goals market, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, which carries a market-implied confidence of around 59%. It is worth noting that this pick shows a negative value edge of about -5.12%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our fair estimate. That places it more in the low-confidence category than a standout selection, so treat it accordingly when planning your stake for this fixture.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61. With a negative value edge of -5.12%, this is a low-confidence lean rather than a strong recommendation, so it carries meaningful risk. The result market itself is a near coin toss. Stake modestly and bet within your budget.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 59% confidence rating.
Neither team is a clear favourite. Both San Lorenzo and Union Santa Fe are priced identically at 2.81, giving each an implied win probability of around 36%.
The draw is available at 2.93, which implies roughly a 34% chance. That is close to the win prices, reflecting a very balanced market.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -5.12%, so it is a low-confidence lean at best.
San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe takes place Sat · 17:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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