English ⚽ MLS 🕒 16 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.50
LostResult
1-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
37%Pre-match conf.
-0.79%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at William Hill
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
San Jose Earthquakes are the market favourite at 1.71, implying around a 58% chance of victory.
02
St. Louis City SC are sizeable outsiders at 4.83, worth roughly 21% in implied probability.
03
The draw at 4.4 is priced close to the away win, implying about 23% and reflecting genuine uncertainty over the outcome.
04
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.5 carries only 37% model confidence and a negative value edge of -8.63%, so it is a marginal call.
Team form
SJE San Jose Earthquakes DWWDL
19 Sept 26 vs Los Angeles FC 2-2
13 Sept 26 vs Houston Dynamo 1-0
10 Sept 26 @ San Diego FC 3-2
6 Sept 26 @ Austin FC 1-1
23 Aug 26 vs Minnesota United FC 1-5
SLC St. Louis City SC WWDWD
20 Sept 26 vs Toronto FC 3-1
13 Sept 26 vs Minnesota United FC 4-2
10 Sept 26 @ Portland Timbers 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3-1
30 Aug 26 vs FC Dallas 3-3
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes v St. Louis City SC
L 16 Aug 26
San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City SCMLS
W/D/L shown from San Jose Earthquakes's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC: pre-match preview
This MLS meeting between San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City SC sees the home side installed as clear favourites. The best available price on San Jose is 1.71, which translates to roughly a 58% implied chance, while St. Louis City SC drift out to 4.83, or about 21% in probability terms. The draw sits at 4.4, implying close to 23%. That spread points to a market that leans firmly toward San Jose without treating the outcome as a formality. Our model's recommended angle steers away from the match-result market entirely and looks at goals: Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.5 with William Hill. It is worth being upfront that the model attaches only 37% confidence to that line and flags a negative value edge of -8.63%, so this is a low-conviction lean rather than a strong signal on this particular fixture.
Verdict: The suggested play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.5, but this is a low-conviction lean: 37% model confidence and a -8.63% value edge mean the numbers do not strongly back it. Treat it as a small-stakes idea at most, and stake only what fits your bankroll.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 16 Aug 26
San Jose Earthquakes to winfinal score 1-3
2.26 -1.00u Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.50.
Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC?+
San Jose Earthquakes are favourites at a best price of 1.71, implying about a 58% chance. St. Louis City SC are outsiders at 4.83, around 21%.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is available at 4.4 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 23% probability and prices it close to a St. Louis City SC win.
Is there any value in this match?+
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.5 actually shows a negative value edge of -8.63% with just 37% model confidence, so it is a marginal lean rather than a strong value play.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).