MLS · Sun · 02:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
San Jose Earthquakes are the market favourite at 1.71, implying around a 58% chance of victory.
St. Louis City SC are sizeable outsiders at 4.83, worth roughly 21% in implied probability.
The draw at 4.4 is priced close to the away win, implying about 23% and reflecting genuine uncertainty over the outcome.
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.5 carries only 37% model confidence and a negative value edge of -8.63%, so it is a marginal call.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.52 | +7.5% | 24% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.83 | LeoVegas (SE) | 54.6% |
| St. Louis City SC | 4.15 | Nordic Bet | 24.1% |
| Draw | 4.52 | 1xBet | 22.1% |
This MLS meeting between San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City SC sees the home side installed as clear favourites. The best available price on San Jose is 1.71, which translates to roughly a 58% implied chance, while St. Louis City SC drift out to 4.83, or about 21% in probability terms. The draw sits at 4.4, implying close to 23%. That spread points to a market that leans firmly toward San Jose without treating the outcome as a formality. Our model's recommended angle steers away from the match-result market entirely and looks at goals: Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.5 with William Hill. It is worth being upfront that the model attaches only 37% confidence to that line and flags a negative value edge of -8.63%, so this is a low-conviction lean rather than a strong signal on this particular fixture.
Verdict: The suggested play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.5, but this is a low-conviction lean: 37% model confidence and a -8.63% value edge mean the numbers do not strongly back it. Treat it as a small-stakes idea at most, and stake only what fits your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.49, with a 63% confidence rating.
San Jose Earthquakes are favourites at a best price of 1.71, implying about a 58% chance. St. Louis City SC are outsiders at 4.83, around 21%.
The draw is available at 4.4 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 23% probability and prices it close to a St. Louis City SC win.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.5 actually shows a negative value edge of -8.63% with just 37% model confidence, so it is a marginal lean rather than a strong value play.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City SC takes place Sun · 02:30 in the MLS.
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