MLS · Sun · 02:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
San Jose Earthquakes are priced at 1.95, implying roughly a 51% win chance and clear market favouritism over Portland Timbers.
Portland Timbers at 3.34 imply around 30% win probability, positioning them as moderate underdogs rather than heavy outsiders.
The draw at 4.2 implies close to 24%, a fairly standard price band for MLS fixtures with a home favourite.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.96 carries a modeled 48% confidence level but shows a negative value edge of -5.63%, meaning the price does not currently offer a statistical edge by the model's own measure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 10.79 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.07 |
| 1-2 | 7.0% | 14.31 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
| 1-0 | 6.1% | 16.29 |
| 2-0 | 6.0% | 16.72 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.95 and 1.51. These six scorelines cover 44% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SJE | X | 2 · PT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.98 | 3.50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.08 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.98 | 3.98 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.97 | 3.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
San Jose Earthquakes host Portland Timbers in an MLS clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. San Jose's price of 1.95 with Coolbet implies a win probability of roughly 51%, making them the clear favourites on paper, while Portland's 3.34 with Marathon Bet points to around 30% and the draw at 4.2 suggests roughly 24%. Those numbers add up to a market that expects goals and a home advantage to matter, but not overwhelmingly so. Away from the result market, our model's featured angle is Over 3.5 goals at 1.96 with Coolbet, a goals-based play rather than a match-result selection, reflecting the model's read that this fixture could produce an open, high-scoring affair regardless of who takes the three points.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals pick at 1.96 reflects a near coin-flip probability estimate (48%) with a slightly negative value edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a clear-cut market inefficiency. No result-market value picks cleared the threshold either, so bettors should size stakes cautiously and manage bankroll with discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.02, with a 49% confidence rating.
San Jose Earthquakes are the market favourites at 1.95 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 51% chance of winning, compared with Portland Timbers at 3.34.
The draw is priced at 4.2 with Coolbet, which implies an approximate 24% probability, a typical range for a game with a clear home favourite.
No result-market selection cleared the site's value threshold; the featured pick is Over 3.5 goals at 1.96, though it carries a negative value edge of -5.63% by the model's own calculation.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers takes place Sun · 02:30 in the MLS.
English