English ⚽ MLS 🕒 26 Jul 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.80
WonResult
1-1Final score
+0.80uProfit
54%Pre-match conf.
-0.55%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
San Jose Earthquakes are the market favourites at 1.85, an implied probability of about 54%, well ahead of LA Galaxy.
02
LA Galaxy at 4.0 imply roughly 25%, only marginally clearer than the draw priced at 4.32 (about 23%).
03
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.8 carries around 54% implied confidence but a negative value edge of about -2.86%.
04
No value picks cleared our threshold against market consensus, suggesting the prices are broadly efficient here.
Team form
SJE San Jose Earthquakes DWWDL
19 Sept 26 vs Los Angeles FC 2-2
13 Sept 26 vs Houston Dynamo 1-0
10 Sept 26 @ San Diego FC 3-2
6 Sept 26 @ Austin FC 1-1
23 Aug 26 vs Minnesota United FC 1-5
LG LA Galaxy WDLWD
20 Sept 26 @ Minnesota United FC 3-2
13 Sept 26 vs Seattle Sounders FC 1-1
10 Sept 26 @ Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0-3
6 Sept 26 vs New England Revolution 2-1
22 Aug 26 @ CF Montreal 2-2
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes v LA Galaxy
Full H2H history → L 20 Aug 26
LA Galaxy 1-0 San Jose EarthquakesMLS
D 26 Jul 26
San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 LA GalaxyMLS
W/D/L shown from San Jose Earthquakes's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy: pre-match preview
This MLS California derby sees the San Jose Earthquakes host LA Galaxy, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. San Jose are priced at 1.85 with Betfair, translating to an implied probability of roughly 54%, marking them as clear home favourites. LA Galaxy drift out to 4.0 (1xBet), or about 25% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 4.32 (BetOnline.ag), around 23%. That pricing spread points to a game the market expects San Jose to control, though a quarter-chance for the visitors is far from negligible. Our model steers away from the match result and instead looks at the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.8 (1xBet) with a market-implied confidence near 54%. It is worth noting this pick carries a slightly negative value edge, so it reflects a lean rather than a standout price in this fixture.
Verdict: The lean is Under 3.5 goals at 1.8, backed by roughly 54% model confidence in a contained scoreline. Be aware the value edge is slightly negative, so this is a modest preference rather than a strong edge. Treat it as a low-conviction play and stake responsibly within your bankroll.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.80 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 26 Jul 26
Over 3.5 goalsfinal score 1-1
2.10 -1.00u Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs LA Galaxy?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+0.80u at flat stakes).