Süper Lig · Mon · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Samsunspor are the market favourites at 2.33 (about 43% implied), ahead of Goztepe at 3.33 (about 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, roughly 29% implied, keeping a stalemate firmly in play.
Over 2.5 goals at 2.17 carries around 45% implied confidence but a negative value edge of about -3.12%.
The draw is flagged as the value pick, with a fair probability of 30% against its price for a positive edge of roughly 3.16%.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | 3.52 | 1xBet | 28.4% |
| Samsunspor | 2.20 | 1xBet | 45.5% |
| Draw | 3.43 | 1xBet | 29.2% |
Samsunspor host Goztepe in the Süper Lig, and the market leans clearly toward the home side. Samsunspor are priced at 2.33 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, while Goztepe sit at 3.33, around 30% in implied terms. The draw is available at 3.4 with Coolbet, also close to 29% implied. That spread points to a moderate home favourite rather than a mismatch, with a realistic path to a share of the points. Our model's recommended angle is the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 2.17 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence near 45%. Notably, that pick shows a slightly negative value edge of about -3.12%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. The clearest value flag from the data actually falls on the draw, where our fair probability of 30% edges above the market price.
Verdict: The model's lead angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.17, a modest lean given its slightly negative edge. The stronger value signal sits on the draw at 3.4, where fair probability beats the price. Both are calculated positions rather than strong plays, so stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 18:30 | Galatasaray v Akhisar Belediyespor | 1.20 | 7.29 | 12.50 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Kasimpasa SK v Trabzonspor | 4.10 | 3.83 | 1.90 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Torku Konyaspor v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.56 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Genclerbirligi SK v Fenerbahce | 6.81 | 4.58 | 1.50 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Gazişehir Gaziantep v Alanyaspor | 2.66 | 3.50 | 2.71 |
| 16 Aug 16:00 | Basaksehir v Kocaelispor | 1.55 | 4.40 | 6.75 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Amed SK v Erzurum BB | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Besiktas JK v Eyüpspor | 1.35 | 5.70 | 8.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 54% confidence rating.
Samsunspor are the favourites at 2.33 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 43%. Goztepe are the outsiders at 3.33, roughly 30% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, which implies about 29%. Our model rates its fair probability at 30%, giving a small positive value edge of around 3.16%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.17 actually shows a negative edge of about -3.12%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet. The draw at 3.4 is the pick flagged with a positive edge in the data.
Samsunspor vs Goztepe takes place Mon · 18:30 in the Süper Lig.
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