Liga Profesional · Today · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Rosario Central are priced shortest at 2.27 (about 44% implied probability), making them favourites but not by a wide margin
Argentinos Juniors at 3.45 imply just under 29% probability, the least favoured outcome in the match-result market
The draw at 3.1 (roughly 32% implied) sits close enough to the favourite's price to suggest a genuinely open contest
The Over 1.5 goals pick at 1.52 carries a model confidence of 62% but shows a negative value edge of -5.19%, meaning the price is not currently in the bettor's favour by the model's own measure
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.2% | 7.02 |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | 7.40 |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.41 |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | 7.82 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.30 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 14.04 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.05 and 0.95. These six scorelines cover 69% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RC | X | 2 · AJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.00 | 3.29 | 4.33 |
| BetAnything | 2.00 | 3.29 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.29 | 4.32 |
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.21 | 4.18 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.01 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rosario Central host Argentinos Juniors in a Liga Profesional clash where the market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best prices have Rosario Central at 2.27, which implies a win probability of roughly 44%, while Argentinos Juniors sit at 3.45 (about 29% implied) and the draw is priced at 3.1 (roughly 32% implied). Those numbers point to a fairly competitive match rather than a lopsided one, with all three outcomes carrying realistic weight according to the odds. Away from the result market, the highlighted angle here is goals: Over 1.5 goals is priced at 1.52, translating to a market-implied confidence of 62% according to our model. That said, the same model flags a negative value edge of -5.19% on this selection, meaning the current price does not look favourable relative to the model's own assessment, even though it remains the featured recommendation for this fixture.
Verdict: Over 1.5 goals at 1.52 is the standout data point here, backed by 62% model confidence, but the -5.19% value edge means the odds do not currently offer an advantage over fair value. It is a plausible outcome given the goal-line pricing, but not one to treat as safe or discounted.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| 2 Oct 22:15 | Independiente v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.46 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.42, with a 39% confidence rating.
Rosario Central are the market favourites, priced at 2.27 for the win, which implies roughly a 44% chance according to the odds. Argentinos Juniors are outsiders at 3.45 (about 29% implied).
The draw is available at 3.1, implying a probability of around 32%, which is close enough to the favourite's price to suggest a fairly balanced matchup.
No standout value picks were flagged above threshold in the match-result market. The featured Over 1.5 goals selection at 1.52 has 62% model confidence but actually shows a negative value edge of -5.19%, so it should not be treated as a clear value bet.
Rosario Central vs Argentinos Juniors takes place Today · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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