Liga Profesional · Fri · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Rosario Central are strong favourites at 1.54 (about 65% implied), with Aldosivi rank outsiders at 7.13 (roughly 14%).
The draw is priced at 3.81, implying near 26%, but the model rates its fair probability at 32%, flagging a positive edge of around 20%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.37 carries only a 40% implied confidence and a negative value edge of -5.2%, meaning it is priced slightly against the bettor.
The wide gap between the favourite and underdog prices reflects a match the market views as heavily one-sided.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 8.60 | Betfair | 11.6% |
| Rosario Central | 1.55 | 1xBet | 64.5% |
| Draw | 3.90 | Unibet (SE) | 25.6% |
Rosario Central head into this Liga Profesional clash with Aldosivi Mar del Plata as clear home favourites. The market prices Central at 1.54, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 65%, while Aldosivi are long outsiders at 7.13, or about 14% in probability terms. The draw sits at 3.81, implying close to 26%. That spread paints a lopsided contest on paper, with the bookmakers leaning heavily towards the hosts. Our model, however, focuses on the goals angle rather than the winner: the recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.37, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 40%. Notably, that pick shows a negative value edge of -5.2%, so it is priced against you relative to fair value. Interestingly, the standout value flag falls on the draw, where the model's fair probability of 32% suggests an edge over the offered 3.81. Weigh both angles before committing.
Verdict: The model's headline pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.37, but its negative -5.2% edge means it offers no pricing advantage and should be treated as a modest, higher-risk play. The clearer value signal is on the draw at 3.81. Stake responsibly and only what you can afford to lose.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 22:15 | Boca Juniors v Velez Sarsfield BA | 1.82 | 3.25 | 5.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.54, with a 62% confidence rating.
Rosario Central are the favourites at 1.54, implying about a 65% chance. Aldosivi Mar del Plata are the outsiders at 7.13, around 14%.
The draw is priced at 3.81 with 1xBet, implying roughly 26%. Our model rates its fair probability at 32%, which points to a value edge of about 20%.
The Over 2.5 goals pick is offered at 2.37 with around 40% implied confidence, but it shows a negative value edge of -5.2%, so it is priced slightly against you rather than in your favour.
Rosario Central vs Aldosivi Mar del Plata takes place Fri · 22:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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