Austrian Bundesliga · Sun · 12:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Altach are priced as clear favourites at 2.16, implying roughly a 46% win chance versus Wolfsberger's 32% at 3.1.
The draw at 3.5 implies about 29%, keeping it a live possibility in the market's eyes despite the home lean.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold, meaning the market consensus and model view are closely aligned there.
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.66 carries a modelled confidence of 56% but a negative value edge of -6.33%, indicating the odds may already reflect fair value or slightly more.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.53 |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | 8.26 |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | 8.88 |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | 9.75 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.77 |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.10 and 1.18. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RA | X | 2 · WA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.04 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Suprabets | 2.03 | 3.33 | 2.97 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.98 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rheindorf Altach host Wolfsberger AC in an Austrian Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans toward the home side. The best price on Altach, 2.16, implies a win probability of roughly 46%, while Wolfsberger's top price of 3.1 points to about 32%, and the draw at 3.5 suggests around 29%. Those figures sum to just over 107%, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin rather than a razor-tight contest. With no side showing value above the site's threshold in the match-result market, attention shifts to the goals market, where the model's recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66. That price carries an implied probability near 60%, though the model's own confidence reading sits at 56% with a negative value edge, so this is presented as a considered option rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.66 reflects a moderate 56% confidence reading, but its negative value edge means it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency. It is a reasonable, data-based option rather than a strong edge play, and stake sizing should account for that.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 10 Oct 17:30 | Austria Wien v Sturm Graz | 3.40 | 3.62 | 2.05 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 56% confidence rating.
Rheindorf Altach are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.16, which implies roughly a 46% chance of winning, compared with about 32% implied for Wolfsberger AC at 3.1.
The best available draw price is 3.5, which implies a probability of around 29%.
No match-result selection currently exceeds the site's value threshold. The model's featured pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, though it shows a negative value edge of -6.33%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than strong opportunity.
Rheindorf Altach vs Wolfsberger AC takes place Sun · 12:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
English