Brasileirão · Wed · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Remo are priced marginally shorter (2.63) than Grêmio (2.77), making them the market's narrow favourite for this Brasileirão clash.
Implied probabilities sit close together at roughly 38% for Remo, 36% for Grêmio and 30% for the draw, reflecting a genuinely open match.
The model's recommended Remo win carries a value edge of about 3.97% versus the market price, though confidence is capped at 40%.
No other selections met the value threshold, meaning the draw and a Grêmio win are not flagged as offering statistical value at current prices.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 9.35 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.21 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.38 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.12 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.40 and 1.17. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Remo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · REM | X | 2 · GRÊ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.63 | 3.32 | 2.77 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.55 | 3.22 | 2.69 |
| Betsson | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.52 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Remo host Grêmio in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market sees very little to separate the two sides. The best available prices have Remo at 2.63, Grêmio at 2.77 and the draw at 3.32, which translates to implied probabilities of roughly 38% for the home side, 36% for Grêmio and 30% for a draw once bookmaker margin is accounted for. That narrow gap suggests bookmakers view this as close to a coin-flip contest, with Remo holding only a slight statistical edge as favourite. Our model's recommended selection is Remo to win at 2.63, which it flags as carrying a value edge of just under 4% against the market's own pricing, though its stated confidence sits at a modest 40%. No other selections cleared the value threshold, underlining how tightly this match is priced across outcomes.
Verdict: Remo to win at 2.63 is the market's slight favourite and the only selection showing a measurable value edge, but with confidence at just 40% this remains a close, competitive fixture rather than a clear-cut pick. Stakes should be sized cautiously given the tight pricing across all three outcomes.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Remo are the narrow market favourite, priced at 2.63 compared with 2.77 for Grêmio, giving them a slightly higher implied win probability of about 38% versus 36%.
The draw is available at 3.32, which implies roughly a 30% chance according to the market, making it the least likely outcome of the three per the odds.
The model identifies Remo at 2.63 as carrying a value edge of about 3.97% over the market price, though it only assigns 40% confidence to the pick, so it should be treated as a moderate rather than strong lean.
Remo vs Grêmio takes place Wed · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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