English ⚽ MLS 🕒 Sun · 01:30
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.61
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceMedium · 64%
AI Value edge 3.22% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Real Salt Lake are priced at 2.14, implying roughly 47 percent win probability and making them the clear market favourite over New England Revolution
02
New England Revolution's 3.26 price implies about 31 percent, leaving a meaningful gap of roughly 16 percentage points between the two sides
03
The draw at 3.88 implies close to 26 percent, keeping it a live but secondary outcome behind a Real Salt Lake win
04
The model's recommended play, Under 3.5 goals at 1.62, shows a 3.44 percent edge and 64 percent implied confidence, the only pick flagged as above the value threshold
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 56%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.33 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 11.05 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 0-1 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.55 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.36 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.44 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
RSL Real Salt Lake LLLDL
20 Sept 26 vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0-3
13 Sept 26 vs New York City FC 0-2
10 Sept 26 @ Houston Dynamo 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Los Angeles FC 2-2
22 Aug 26 @ Orlando City SC 1-2
NER New England Revolution WWWLW
19 Sept 26 vs Orlando City SC 4-2
13 Sept 26 @ Chicago Fire 2-1
10 Sept 26 @ New York City FC 2-1
6 Sept 26 @ LA Galaxy 1-2
30 Aug 26 @ Columbus Crew SC 3-1
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · RSL | X | 2 · NER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.86 | 3.17 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.23 | 3.85 | 3.05 |
| Betsson | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| Coolbet | 2.12 | 3.85 | 3.10 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.02 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.17 | 3.70 | 2.95 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution: match preview
Real Salt Lake host New England Revolution in an MLS fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At 2.14 for a Real Salt Lake win, the odds imply a probability of roughly 47 percent, well ahead of New England Revolution's 3.26 price, which points to about 31 percent. The draw sits at 3.88, implying around 26 percent, a fairly standard price for a match with a moderate favourite. Rather than backing the match result outright, our model's recommended angle looks at the total goals market, flagging Under 3.5 goals at 1.62 as the value play. That price carries an implied probability near 62 percent, and the model rates its confidence at 64 percent with a modest 3.44 percent edge over the market consensus, suggesting the goals line offers slightly better value than the standard win-draw-win market for this MLS clash.
Verdict: The data points to Real Salt Lake as moderate favourites, but the clearest statistical edge lies in the goals market rather than the result itself. Under 3.5 goals at 1.62 carries a 64 percent confidence reading and a modest edge, making it a reasonably grounded pick, though no outcome in football is ever assured.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 64% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?+
Real Salt Lake are the market favourites at 2.14, which implies roughly a 47 percent chance of winning, compared to about 31 percent implied for New England Revolution at 3.26.
What is the draw priced at for this MLS match?+
The draw is available at 3.88, which implies an approximate 26 percent probability, keeping it a realistic but less likely outcome than a Real Salt Lake win.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
The model does not flag value in the standard match-result market, but it does highlight Under 3.5 goals at 1.62 as a value pick, showing a 3.44 percent edge and 64 percent implied confidence.
When does the match kick off?+
Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution takes place Sun · 01:30 in the MLS.