MLS · Thu · 01:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Real Salt Lake are the clear favourites at 1.92, an implied probability near 52%, with FC Dallas at 3.72 (about 27%).
The draw is priced at 4.41, roughly a 23% implied chance, but our model rates it higher at 26% fair probability, flagging a 15.89% value edge.
FC Dallas at 3.72 also show a modest positive edge of 3.3% against a 28% fair probability.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals pick at 1.74 carries about 54% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -5.67%, so the price is slightly tighter than fair.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.41 | +15.1% | 26% | 67 |
| FC Dallas to win | 3.80 | +4.5% | 27% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 3.80 | MyBookie.ag | 26.3% |
| Real Salt Lake | 1.92 | Coolbet | 52.1% |
| Draw | 4.41 | 1xBet | 22.7% |
Real Salt Lake host FC Dallas in this MLS clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. RSL are priced at 1.92 with Coolbet, translating to roughly a 52% implied chance, while FC Dallas drift out to 3.72 (around 27%) and the draw sits at 4.41 (about 23%). That spread points to a home side the bookmakers respect without treating the outcome as anything close to a formality. Our model's headline recommendation looks past the winner and toward goals: Over 3.0 goals at 1.74, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 54%. It's worth noting the value edge on that pick is negative at -5.67%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our fair estimate. The more interesting value signals appear elsewhere in the match-result market, particularly around the draw and the away side, which we break down below.
Verdict: The model recommends Over 3.0 goals at 1.74, backed by roughly 54% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative, meaning the odds are a touch short of fair value. It's a reasonable lean on an open game, but stake responsibly given that reduced margin.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.74, with a 54% confidence rating.
Real Salt Lake are the market favourites at 1.92, implying about a 52% chance. FC Dallas are the outsiders at 3.72, around 27%.
The draw is priced at 4.41 with 1xBet, an implied probability of roughly 23%. Our model rates it a little higher at 26% fair probability, giving a 15.89% edge.
The strongest value signal is on the draw, with a 15.89% edge, followed by a smaller 3.3% edge on FC Dallas. The recommended Over 3.0 goals pick actually shows a negative edge of -5.67%.
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas takes place Thu · 01:30 in the MLS.
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