La Liga · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Real Racing's 1.94 price implies roughly 51.5 percent win probability, the strongest single outcome priced across the match-result market.
Valencia's best odds of 4.57 imply about 21.9 percent, below the model's fair probability estimate of 24 percent, producing a 7.62 percent edge on the away side.
The draw is priced at 3.92 (about 25.5 percent implied), sitting between the two teams' win probabilities and reflecting a fairly competitive match-result market overall.
The Over 2.75 goals recommendation carries a -4.0 percent edge against its 1.91 price, meaning the model's 50 percent confidence does not fully cover the odds on offer.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RRC | X | 2 · VAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.84 | 3.87 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.96 | 3.74 | 3.76 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.85 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.96 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Racing Club de Santander host Valencia in a La Liga fixture where the betting market has a clear view on the outcome. Racing are priced at 1.94 with Unibet, which implies a win probability of roughly 51.5 percent, making them the clear favourites on paper. Valencia, at a best-available 4.57 with 1xBet, are priced at just under 22 percent to win, while the draw sits at 3.92 (about 25.5 percent) with the same bookmaker. Away from the match-result market, the recommended angle from our model centres on goals rather than the winner: Over 2.75 goals is available at 1.91 with Pinnacle, though the model's own confidence reading of 50 percent translates to a slight negative edge of -4.0 percent against that price. Separately, Valencia's price stands out as a possible value opportunity relative to the model's fair-probability estimate.
Verdict: The suggested Over 2.75 goals bet at 1.91 is not a clear-cut value play, carrying a modest -4.0 percent edge against the model's 50 percent confidence figure. It reflects a competitive expectation of goals rather than a strong statistical edge, so stake sizing should stay conservative and factor in the inherent uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Real Racing Club de Santander are favourites, priced at 1.94, which implies roughly a 51.5 percent chance of winning according to the market.
The draw is priced at 3.92 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 25.5 percent probability.
According to the model, yes: Valencia's best price of 4.57 implies about 21.9 percent, below the model's fair probability estimate of 24 percent, giving a value edge of roughly 7.62 percent, though this remains an underdog price with inherent risk.
Real Racing Club de Santander vs Valencia takes place Sun · 19:00 in the La Liga.
English 
