La Liga · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Real Madrid's 1.27 price implies a win probability of close to 79 percent, reflecting a strongly one-sided market view
Villarreal's 11.5 odds translate to roughly 8-9 percent implied probability, underlining their underdog status according to the market
The draw at 7.48 implies around 13 percent, a modest but non-trivial share of the outcome probabilities
The Over 3.75 goals recommendation carries a -4.63 percent value edge against the model's estimate, meaning the market price is not offering a clear statistical advantage despite the 52 percent confidence level
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.34 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.40 |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 13.28 |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
| 3-0 | 6.8% | 14.68 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.33 and 1.10. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Real Madrid's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RM | X | 2 · VIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 7.36 | 11.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.27 | 6.75 | 10.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.27 | 6.75 | 10.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.26 | 7.00 | 9.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.23 | 6.75 | 11.00 |
| Betsson | 1.27 | 5.75 | 10.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Madrid host Villarreal in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Real Madrid are priced at 1.27 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 79 percent, making them heavy favourites in this contest. Villarreal, at 11.5, are given only around an 8-9 percent chance by the odds, while the draw at 7.48 sits at about 13 percent implied probability. Away from the match-result market, our model's recommended angle here is not on who wins but on goal volume: Over 3.75 goals is priced at 1.84 with the market pricing in a 52 percent chance of that many goals falling, though the model's own edge calculation shows a slightly negative value gap. This suggests the goals market is worth watching, but not as a clear-cut opportunity.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Real Madrid, leaving limited value in the result market itself. The recommended Over 3.75 goals bet at 1.84 reflects a genuine goal-scoring angle, but its negative value edge means it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-confidence pick. Bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
| 11 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v CA Osasuna | 1.61 | 4.47 | 5.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.75 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 49% confidence rating.
Real Madrid are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.27 for a win, which implies roughly a 79 percent chance of victory.
The draw is available at 7.48, which implies an approximate 13 percent probability based on the market data provided.
The model highlights Over 3.75 goals at 1.84 as its recommended bet with 52 percent implied confidence, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.63 percent, meaning it is not a standout value opportunity by the model's own measure.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal takes place Sat · 19:00 in the La Liga.
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