La Liga · Sun · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Real Betis are strongly favoured at 1.61, implying close to a 62 percent chance of victory according to the market.
CA Osasuna's 5.8 price implies roughly 17 percent, reflecting the market's view of them as clear underdogs in this fixture.
The draw at 4.47 implies about 22 percent, a live secondary outcome given the gap between the two teams' prices.
The Over 2.75 goals recommendation sits at 1.89 with 51 percent model confidence, but the -4.51 percent value edge suggests the market is not obviously mispricing that line.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.7% | 7.88 |
| 2-0 | 11.7% | 8.58 |
| 1-1 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.27 |
| 3-0 | 7.1% | 14.01 |
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 14.47 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.84 and 0.83. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Real Betis's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RB | X | 2 · CO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 4.47 | 5.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.60 | 4.25 | 5.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.60 | 4.25 | 5.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.57 | 4.35 | 5.65 |
| Coolbet | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.58 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Betis host CA Osasuna in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Betis are priced at 1.61 with the best odds available, which implies a win probability of roughly 62 percent, making them clear favourites on home soil. Osasuna sit at 5.8, translating to an implied chance of about 17 percent, while the draw is priced at 4.47, implying around 22 percent. Together these prices point to a match the market expects Betis to control. Away from the result market, the recommended angle here is Over 2.75 goals at 1.89, a line the model rates with 51 percent confidence, though it currently carries a slightly negative value edge against the market's own pricing of that same outcome.
Verdict: The Over 2.75 goals selection at 1.89 reflects a roughly coin-flip view from the model, and the negative value edge means it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency. It is a reasonable point of interest rather than a confidently backed angle, and stake sizing should reflect that modest edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Real Betis are the clear favourites, priced at 1.61, which implies a win probability of around 62 percent according to the best available odds.
The draw is priced at 4.47 at the best available odds, which implies roughly a 22 percent chance of that outcome.
The main flagged angle is Over 2.75 goals at 1.89, but it carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.51 percent, meaning the model does not see it as a strong value bet despite its 51 percent confidence rating.
Real Betis vs CA Osasuna takes place Sun · 16:30 in the La Liga.
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