La Liga · Sat · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Athletic Bilbao are market favourites at 2.48, implying roughly 40% win probability, compared with Rayo Vallecano's 3.23 (about 31%).
The draw at 3.53 implies close to 28%, keeping all three match-result outcomes within a narrow band and reflecting genuine uncertainty in the pricing.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 carries an implied probability near 51.8%, slightly above our model's own 51% estimate.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the match-result market, and the goals recommendation itself shows a small negative edge of -1.54%, indicating limited rather than strong value.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | 8.31 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.80 |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 11.03 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 0-0 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.51 and 1.02. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RV | X | 2 · AB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 3.41 | 2.32 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rayo Vallecano host Athletic Bilbao in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors without making them overwhelming favourites. Athletic's best price of 2.48 with Unibet implies a win probability of roughly 40%, while Rayo's 3.23 with 1xBet puts their chances at just under 31%. The draw, priced at 3.53, sits close behind at around 28%, meaning bookmakers see this as a fairly competitive match rather than a one-sided affair. With the three outcomes so tightly bunched in probability terms, our model has instead turned to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 with 1xBet. That price reflects a market-implied confidence of about 51.8%, close to our model's own 51% read, suggesting the goals line offers a more clearly defined angle than trying to call the match result outright.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.93 aligns closely with market pricing rather than exploiting a clear mispricing, given the slight negative edge of -1.54%. It's a reasonable, moderate-confidence angle around 51% implied probability rather than a standout opportunity, so stake sizing should reflect that modest edge and normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
| 11 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v CA Osasuna | 1.61 | 4.47 | 5.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 51% confidence rating.
Athletic Bilbao are the market favourites, priced at 2.48 (about 40% implied probability) compared with Rayo Vallecano's 3.23 (around 31%).
The draw is available at 3.53, which implies a probability of roughly 28%, keeping it competitive with both match-result outcomes.
No selections cleared our value threshold in the match-result market; the highlighted Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.93 shows only a small negative edge of -1.54%, so it reflects fair pricing more than a strong value opportunity.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao takes place Sat · 12:00 in the La Liga.
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