Liga MX · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Pumas are priced at 2.0, implying roughly a 50% chance of victory according to the best available odds.
Atlético San Luis at 3.62 imply around 28% probability, positioning them as clear outsiders in the market's view.
The draw at 3.75 (about 27% implied) is priced closely enough to the away odds to remain a live outcome.
The Under 2.75 goals recommendation at 1.92 carries a 49% model confidence against a required 52%, giving a small negative edge of -5.01%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.9% | 10.09 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.12 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.39 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
| 3-0 | 5.8% | 17.12 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.00 and 1.13. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PUM | X | 2 · ASL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.70 | 3.58 |
| Coolbet | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.63 | 3.62 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.92 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.91 | 3.55 | 3.56 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Pumas host Atlético San Luis in a Liga MX fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best available prices put Pumas at 2.0, implying a win probability of around 50%, while Atlético San Luis sit out at 3.62, translating to roughly 28% implied probability. The draw is priced at 3.75, or about 27%, keeping the market fairly open despite Pumas being the clear favourite. Rather than backing a match-result outcome, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Under 2.75 goals at 1.92 with Pinnacle. That price implies a break-even probability near 52%, and the model's own confidence sits at 49%, producing a modest negative edge of just over 5%. No standout value picks emerged against market consensus elsewhere, so this goals-line lean is the standout angle from the numbers available for this Liga MX meeting.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.75 goals at 1.92, reflecting a cautious, low-scoring expectation rather than a strong statistical edge. With a negative value edge of about 5%, this is a moderate-confidence lean rather than a high-conviction pick, so stake sizing should stay conservative and bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 21 Sept 02:10 | Querétaro v León | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:00 | Cruz Azul v Toluca | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 26 Sept 23:07 | Guadalajara v Querétaro | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 49% confidence rating.
Pumas are the market favourites at 2.0, implying roughly a 50% win probability, compared to Atlético San Luis at 3.62 (about 28%).
The draw is available at 3.75, which implies an approximate 27% probability, keeping it competitive with the away price.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold; the notable angle is the Under 2.75 goals bet at 1.92, which carries a slight negative edge of -5.01% based on the model's 49% confidence.
Pumas vs Atlético San Luis takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Liga MX.
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