Eredivisie · Sat · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
PSV are priced at 1.25, implying roughly an 80% chance of victory, marking them as strong home favourites.
Fortuna Sittard at 12.5 carry only about an 8% implied win probability, reflecting a substantial price gap.
The draw at 8.0 sits near a 12.5% implied chance, underlining the market's confidence in a decisive result.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 2.22 shows a negative value edge of -8.38%, so it offers no statistical value on current pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.64 |
| 3-0 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
| 4-1 | 6.9% | 14.58 |
| 2-1 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
| 4-0 | 6.0% | 16.58 |
| 2-0 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 3.47 and 1.14. These six scorelines cover 41% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from PSV Eindhoven's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 14.50 | Betsson | 6.9% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.24 | Betfair | 80.6% |
| Draw | 8.60 | 1xBet | 11.6% |
This Eredivisie meeting sees PSV Eindhoven open at home as heavy favourites against Fortuna Sittard. At 1.25, the market prices PSV at roughly an 80% implied chance of taking all three points, a valuation that leaves little doubt about which side the bookmakers expect to control the game. Fortuna Sittard, by contrast, are offered at 12.5, translating to only about an 8% implied probability of an away win, while the draw sits at 8.0, near a 12.5% chance. The gap between the two prices is among the widest you will see in a top-flight fixture. Rather than backing the lopsided match result, our model looks to the goals market, flagging Under 3.5 goals at 2.22 with a market-implied confidence around 41%. Note, however, that this carries a negative value edge of about -8.38%, meaning the price offers no measurable edge on paper.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 3.5 goals at 2.22, carrying roughly 41% implied confidence. Honestly, the negative value edge of -8.38% means the price offers no measurable advantage, so treat this as a marginal, higher-risk selection rather than a strong play. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v Excelsior | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar | 1.52 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| 8 Aug 16:45 | Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II | 1.71 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| 8 Aug 19:00 | AZ Alkmaar v ADO Den Haag | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| 9 Aug 10:15 | Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Groningen v FC Utrecht | 2.43 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | FC Zwolle v Ajax | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| 9 Aug 14:45 | Heerenveen v FC Twente Enschede | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.19 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.22, with a 41% confidence rating.
PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites at 1.25, implying about an 80% chance of winning. Fortuna Sittard are long outsiders at 12.5, around 8% implied.
The draw is priced at 8.0 with 1xBet, which equates to roughly a 12.5% implied probability.
Based on the data, no. The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 2.22 actually shows a negative value edge of -8.38%, and no value picks cleared our threshold.
PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard takes place Sat · 18:00 in the Eredivisie.
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