Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Match-result odds are tightly bunched: Preston 2.66, Millwall 2.71, a gap of just 0.05 in decimal terms.
Implied probabilities sit close together too, roughly 37.6% Preston, 36.9% Millwall, and 29.4% draw, reflecting an overround market with no standout favourite.
The recommended Under 2.5 Goals bet at 1.96 implies about 51% probability, versus the model's own 49% confidence figure, producing a -3.27% value edge.
No side of the match-result market or additional selections cleared the site's value threshold, meaning there is no flagged mispricing in the 1X2 lines.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | 9.97 |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 11.00 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 0-2 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
| 2-1 | 7.2% | 13.79 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.20 and 1.51. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Preston North End's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PNE | X | 2 · MIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.34 | 2.70 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.66 | 3.20 | 2.71 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.28 | 2.61 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.58 | 3.28 | 2.61 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Preston North End host Millwall at Deepdale in a Championship clash where the betting market sees almost nothing between the two sides. Best prices have Preston as very narrow favourites at 2.66, with Millwall close behind at 2.71 and the draw available at 3.40. Converting those odds gives Preston around 37.6% implied probability, Millwall about 36.9%, and the draw roughly 29.4%, a spread tight enough to suggest bookmakers view this as a genuine toss-up rather than a clear favourite-versus-underdog contest. With the match-result market offering little separation, our model instead points to the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 Goals at 1.96, which carries an implied probability near 51% against a modelled confidence of 49%. That gap leaves the pick with a slightly negative value edge of -3.27%, so it should be treated as a considered angle rather than a strong statistical edge.
Verdict: With match-result prices this close, there is no strong statistical favourite to lean on. The Under 2.5 Goals pick at 1.96 is the model's preferred angle, but its negative value edge means it is a marginal rather than compelling opportunity. Treat it as one option among several, sized modestly within a balanced betting bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.74 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.96, with a 49% confidence rating.
Preston North End are marginal favourites at 2.66 against Millwall's 2.71, but the gap is small enough that the market effectively rates them as close to even, with implied probabilities of about 37.6% and 36.9% respectively.
The best available draw price is 3.40, which implies a probability of roughly 29.4%, noticeably lower than either team's win chance but still a meaningful share of the market.
No selections in the 1X2 market cleared the site's value threshold. The model's recommended play is Under 2.5 Goals at 1.96, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.27%, meaning it should be viewed as a moderate option rather than a strong edge.
Preston North End vs Millwall takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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