Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Portsmouth are the favourites at 2.22 (about 45% implied), with QPR at 3.4 (about 29%) marking a clear but moderate gap.
The draw is priced at 3.6, roughly a 28% chance, keeping all three outcomes within a fairly tight band.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.98 reflects a near coin-flip market view of about 48% confidence.
The value edge on that pick is -4.09%, so the model does not identify a genuine pricing advantage here.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 2.31 | Pinnacle | 43.3% |
| Queens Park Rangers | 3.40 | LeoVegas (SE) | 29.4% |
| Draw | 3.55 | Betfair | 28.2% |
Portsmouth host Queens Park Rangers in this Championship fixture, and the market leans firmly toward the home side. Portsmouth are priced at 2.22, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 45%, while QPR sit at 3.4 for around 29%. The draw is quoted at 3.6, or close to 28%, underlining a contest the bookmakers see as tilted but far from settled. Those numbers point to a match where Portsmouth are favoured without being dominant, and the visitors retain a realistic route to points. Our model's attention falls not on the result but on the goals market, where Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.98 with Pinnacle. That carries a market-implied confidence of about 48%, though the calculated value edge sits at -4.09%, meaning the price does not currently offer an edge over the market. It reads as a low-scoring lean rather than a standout opportunity in this matchup.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, reflecting a low-scoring expectation for this match. However, the -4.09% value edge shows the price offers no clear edge over the market. Treat it as a modest angle rather than a strong play, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 19:00 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Blackburn Rovers | 1.59 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| 15 Aug 11:30 | Bolton Wanderers v Preston North End | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Lincoln City | 1.37 | 5.50 | 9.80 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Norwich City v West Bromwich Albion | 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.65 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Stoke City v Swansea City | 2.52 | 3.40 | 3.01 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Charlton Athletic v Derby County | 2.78 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 14:00 | Bristol City v Millwall | 2.64 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| 15 Aug 16:30 | Sheffield United v Birmingham City | 2.58 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 49% confidence rating.
Portsmouth are the market favourites at 2.22, implying roughly a 45% chance. QPR are priced at 3.4, around 29%.
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, which equates to an implied probability of about 28%.
No pick cleared the value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.98 actually carries a negative value edge of -4.09%, so there is no clear edge over the market.
Portsmouth vs Queens Park Rangers takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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