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Home/ Predictions/ MLS/ Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC result

MLS · kicked off 1 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.

Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work

Our published tip

Key factors behind our tip

01

Philadelphia Union are the market favourites at 1.76, implying about a 57% chance, well ahead of Atlanta's 4.65.

02

Atlanta United FC's 4.65 price implies roughly 22%, but the model's fair estimate of 23% creates the flagged 8.24% value edge.

03

The draw is priced at 4.12 (about 24% implied) versus a model fair probability of 26%, giving a smaller 6.18% edge.

04

The gap between the favourite and underdog prices reflects a fixture the market expects Philadelphia to control.

Team form

PU Philadelphia Union WW
1 Aug 26 vs Atlanta United FC 3-2
25 Jul 26 vs Seattle Sounders FC 1-0
AUF Atlanta United FC LL
1 Aug 26 @ Philadelphia Union 2-3
25 Jul 26 @ New England Revolution 1-4

Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.

Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC

W 1 Aug 26
Philadelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta United FCMLS

W/D/L shown from Philadelphia Union's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC: pre-match preview

Philadelphia Union host Atlanta United FC in this MLS clash, and the market leaves little doubt about which side is favoured. Philadelphia are priced at 1.76 with GTbets, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 57%, marking them as clear home favourites. Atlanta United sit as sizeable underdogs at 4.65 (Pinnacle), around a 22% implied chance, while the draw is quoted at 4.12 (1xBet), close to 24%. Our model, however, sees value on the away side: it rates Atlanta's fair chance at about 23%, slightly ahead of the market's read, producing a value edge of 8.24% at the 4.65 price. The draw also carries a modest edge of 6.18% on its fair probability of 26%. This is an underdog-value angle rather than a call for an upset, so the recommended bet on Atlanta United weighs long odds against a pricing gap the model believes is exploitable.

Verdict: The recommended bet is Atlanta United FC to win at 4.65, backed by an 8.24% value edge against the market. As an away underdog against a strong home favourite, this is a high-risk, higher-reward selection. Treat it as a value play and stake responsibly.

How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.

Our record on this fixture

W 1 Aug 26
Over 2.75 goalsfinal score 3-2
1.82 +0.82u
W 1 Aug 26
Over 3.0 goalsfinal score 3-2
2.00 +1.00u
L 1 Aug 26
Under 2.5 goalsfinal score 3-2
2.32 -1.00u

Upcoming MLS fixtures

All MLS tips →
Kick-off (UTC)Match1X2
8 Aug 20:30 New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo 2.55 3.86 2.82
15 Aug 23:30 Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati 2.33 4.56 2.75
15 Aug 23:30 CF Montreal v D.C. United 2.25 3.97 3.20
15 Aug 23:30 Toronto FC v New England Revolution 2.35 3.96 3.05
15 Aug 23:30 Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC 2.17 4.04 3.35
15 Aug 23:30 Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls 1.83 4.55 3.95
16 Aug 00:30 Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF 2.15 4.28 3.10
16 Aug 00:30 Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy 1.74 4.44 4.75

Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.

Match FAQ

What was our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC?+

Our tip was Atlanta United FC to win at odds of 4.65.

Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC?+

Philadelphia Union are favourites at 1.76 with GTbets, an implied probability of around 57%. Atlanta United are underdogs at 4.65.

What are the odds on the draw?+

The draw is priced at 4.12 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 24% chance. Our model rates its fair probability slightly higher at 26%, a 6.18% edge.

Is there any betting value in this MLS match?+

Our model flags value on Atlanta United FC at 4.65, with a fair probability of 23% and an 8.24% edge. There is also a smaller edge on the draw, but note both are underdog-leaning plays that carry real risk.

Did the tip win?+

The tip lost — final score 3-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).