English ⚽ MLS 🕒 1 Aug 2026
Our tip
Atlanta United FC to win
Odds
4.65
LostResult
3-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
23%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Philadelphia Union are the market favourites at 1.76, implying about a 57% chance, well ahead of Atlanta's 4.65.
02
Atlanta United FC's 4.65 price implies roughly 22%, but the model's fair estimate of 23% creates the flagged 8.24% value edge.
03
The draw is priced at 4.12 (about 24% implied) versus a model fair probability of 26%, giving a smaller 6.18% edge.
04
The gap between the favourite and underdog prices reflects a fixture the market expects Philadelphia to control.
Team form
PU Philadelphia Union WWWWD
20 Sept 26 @ Sporting Kansas City 4-3
14 Sept 26 @ San Diego FC 5-0
9 Sept 26 vs FC Cincinnati 5-0
5 Sept 26 vs CF Montreal 2-0
23 Aug 26 @ Austin FC 1-1
AUF Atlanta United FC WDLDW
20 Sept 26 @ Portland Timbers 1-0
12 Sept 26 @ D.C. United 0-0
9 Sept 26 vs Orlando City SC 2-3
6 Sept 26 @ Inter Miami CF 2-2
23 Aug 26 vs Sporting Kansas City 2-1
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC
W 1 Aug 26
Philadelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta United FCMLS
W/D/L shown from Philadelphia Union's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC: pre-match preview
Philadelphia Union host Atlanta United FC in this MLS clash, and the market leaves little doubt about which side is favoured. Philadelphia are priced at 1.76 with GTbets, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 57%, marking them as clear home favourites. Atlanta United sit as sizeable underdogs at 4.65 (Pinnacle), around a 22% implied chance, while the draw is quoted at 4.12 (1xBet), close to 24%. Our model, however, sees value on the away side: it rates Atlanta's fair chance at about 23%, slightly ahead of the market's read, producing a value edge of 8.24% at the 4.65 price. The draw also carries a modest edge of 6.18% on its fair probability of 26%. This is an underdog-value angle rather than a call for an upset, so the recommended bet on Atlanta United weighs long odds against a pricing gap the model believes is exploitable.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Atlanta United FC to win at 4.65, backed by an 8.24% value edge against the market. As an away underdog against a strong home favourite, this is a high-risk, higher-reward selection. Treat it as a value play and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 1 Aug 26
Over 2.75 goalsfinal score 3-2
1.82 +0.82u W 1 Aug 26
Over 3.0 goalsfinal score 3-2
2.00 +1.00u L 1 Aug 26
Under 2.5 goalsfinal score 3-2
2.32 -1.00u Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC?+
Our tip was Atlanta United FC to win at odds of 4.65.
Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC?+
Philadelphia Union are favourites at 1.76 with GTbets, an implied probability of around 57%. Atlanta United are underdogs at 4.65.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 4.12 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 24% chance. Our model rates its fair probability slightly higher at 26%, a 6.18% edge.
Is there any betting value in this MLS match?+
Our model flags value on Atlanta United FC at 4.65, with a fair probability of 23% and an 8.24% edge. There is also a smaller edge on the draw, but note both are underdog-leaning plays that carry real risk.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).