Ligue 1 · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
PSG's 1.11 price implies roughly 90 percent win probability, making them very strong favourites according to the market.
Le Mans FC at 24.0 implies only about a 4 percent chance of an away win, while the draw at 13.8 sits around 7 percent.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent, reflecting the standard bookmaker overround built into these odds.
The recommended Under 4.0 goals bet at 1.89 carries a 50 percent implied confidence but shows a -5.0 percent value edge, meaning the model does not see it as a clearly favourable price.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PSG | X | 2 · LMF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.12 | 10.50 | 21.00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.12 | 10.50 | 21.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.10 | 11.50 | 21.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.11 | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.11 | 10.00 | 19.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Paris Saint Germain host Le Mans FC in Ligue 1 with the odds pointing to one of the most lopsided match-ups on the calendar. The best available price on PSG, 1.11 with 1xBet, implies a win probability of roughly 90 percent, leaving Le Mans at 24.0 (about 4 percent) and the draw at 13.8 (around 7 percent) as distant alternatives. Those numbers reflect a market that sees almost no realistic path to anything but a home win. With the result market so heavily skewed, our model looks past the winner line and instead flags the goals total, recommending Under 4.0 goals at 1.89 with Pinnacle. That price carries a market-implied confidence of 50 percent, though the model's own edge calculation shows a slightly negative value gap of -5.0 percent, meaning the bookmaker's line is not obviously mispriced in bettors' favour here.
Verdict: With PSG heavily favoured and the result market offering little value, the Under 4.0 goals pick at 1.89 is the more interesting angle, though its -5.0 percent edge suggests it is not a standout value bet. Treat it as a moderate-risk option and size stakes conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
| 11 Oct 15:15 | Rennes v Auxerre | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 4.0 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 49% confidence rating.
Paris Saint Germain are strong favourites, priced at 1.11, which implies a win probability of around 90 percent according to the market.
The draw is priced at 13.8 with 1xBet, implying a probability of roughly 7 percent.
The model's headline value pick is Under 4.0 goals at 1.89, but it carries a -5.0 percent value edge, so it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity; no other picks met the value threshold.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans FC takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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