Greek Super League · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
PAOK are strong favourites at 1.3, an implied probability of about 77%, while Levadiakos at 12.0 sit near 8%.
The draw is priced at 5.25 (roughly 19% implied), a wide gap from the favourite's price.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 carries a market-implied confidence of 48% but a negative value edge of -4.71%.
Our model rates the draw's fair probability at 23% versus its 19% implied price, producing a positive value edge of about 19.79%.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.25 | +19.8% | 23% | 68 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levadiakos | 12.00 | Nordic Bet | 8.3% |
| PAOK Thessaloniki | 1.30 | Betfair | 76.9% |
| Draw | 5.25 | Coolbet | 19.0% |
PAOK Thessaloniki host Levadiakos in the Greek Super League as clear favourites, with the market pricing the home side at 1.3. That short number translates to an implied probability of roughly 77%, leaving Levadiakos as heavy outsiders at 12.0 (around 8%) and the draw sitting at 5.25 (about 19%). The gap between the two sides is substantial in the eyes of bookmakers, and the pricing reflects a fixture the market expects PAOK to control. Our model does not recommend simply backing the favourite, however. Instead, it flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 as its preferred angle, with a market-implied confidence near 48%. Worth noting is that this pick carries a negative value edge of about -4.71%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. Separately, the draw at 5.25 screens as the notable value spot against consensus, an angle discussed further below.
Verdict: The model's headline lean is Under 2.5 goals at 2.0, an even-money proposition with roughly coin-flip confidence and a slightly negative value edge, so treat it as marginal. The draw at 5.25 shows the clearer value signal on the numbers. Stake responsibly and keep expectations measured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 17:00 | AEK Athens v Iraklis FC | 1.18 | 6.40 | 15.00 |
| 22 Aug 17:00 | Kalamata FC v Aris Thessaloniki | 4.04 | 3.25 | 2.08 |
| 22 Aug 19:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Atromitos Athens | 1.23 | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| 23 Aug 16:30 | OFI Crete v Volos FC | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| 23 Aug 18:00 | Panathinaikos v AE Kifisia FC | 1.26 | 5.50 | 15.00 |
| 23 Aug 18:30 | Panetolikos Agrinio v Asteras Tripolis | 2.62 | 3.15 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
PAOK Thessaloniki are the favourites at 1.3, implying roughly a 77% chance in the market. Levadiakos are long outsiders at 12.0, about 8% implied.
The draw is available at 5.25 with Coolbet, an implied probability of around 19%. Our model rates its fair probability closer to 23%, giving a value edge of about 19.79%.
On our numbers, the draw at 5.25 is the standout value pick. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 actually shows a negative edge of -4.71%, so it is a lean rather than a value price.
PAOK Thessaloniki vs Levadiakos takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Greek Super League.
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