Greek Super League · Sat · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
PAOK's 1.2 price implies an 83% win probability, reflecting a heavy home favourite according to the market
Kalamata's 13.0 odds imply only around 8% win probability, among the longest prices on the match-result market
The draw at 5.8 implies roughly 17%, sitting between the two extremes as a live but unlikely alternative
The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.62 carries a negative value edge of -6.7%, meaning the model does not see it as a clear market inefficiency despite reasonable confidence
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PT | X | 2 · KF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
PAOK Thessaloniki host Kalamata FC in a Greek Super League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.2 on a PAOK win translate to an implied probability of roughly 83%, making the home side an overwhelming favourite against a Kalamata side priced at 13.0, which implies only about 8% chance of an away win. The draw sits at 5.8, implying around 17%. With such a lopsided match-result market, our model instead points toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.62. That price implies a bookmaker probability near 62%, close to the model's own 58% confidence, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -6.7%, meaning the price is not obviously generous relative to the model's own estimate.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.62 aligns with the model's 58% confidence level, but a negative value edge means it is not flagged as a strong price advantage. It is a reasonable consideration given PAOK's heavy favourite status, though bettors should treat it as moderate risk rather than a high-confidence value play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 57% confidence rating.
PAOK are strong favourites, with odds of 1.2 implying an approximate 83% win probability, compared to Kalamata's 13.0 price implying only about 8%.
The draw is priced at 5.8, which implies a probability of roughly 17% according to the market.
No standout value picks were identified against market consensus. The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -6.7%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than high-value option.
PAOK Thessaloniki vs Kalamata FC takes place Sat · 15:00 in the Greek Super League.
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