Greek Super League · Today · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
PAOK's 1.62 price implies roughly a 62 percent win probability, indicating strong market confidence in the visitors.
Panetolikos at 6.5 implies only about a 15 percent chance, reflecting the size of the perceived gap between the two sides.
The draw at 4.1 implies close to a 24 percent probability, sitting well behind the favourite but ahead of the home win.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation carries 49 percent implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.52 percent, meaning the odds are not clearly favourable at this price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.5% | 7.41 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.47 |
| 0-2 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | 10.63 |
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.87 and 1.60. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PA | X | 2 · PT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| Winamax (FR) | 65.00 | 21.00 | 1.03 |
| 888sport | 81.00 | 21.00 | 1.02 |
| Winamax (DE) | 65.00 | 22.00 | 1.02 |
| Unibet (NL) | 67.00 | 18.00 | 1.02 |
| Unibet (SE) | 67.00 | 18.00 | 1.02 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Panetolikos Agrinio host PAOK Thessaloniki in a Greek Super League fixture where the odds leave little doubt about market expectations. PAOK are priced at 1.62 with 1xBet, implying a win probability of roughly 62 percent, making them clear favourites for this trip to Agrinio. Panetolikos, by contrast, are out at 6.5 with Unibet, translating to an implied chance of around 15 percent, while the draw sits at 4.1 with Suprabets, implying roughly 24 percent. That gap between favourite and underdog is substantial and points to a lopsided contest on paper. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.94 with Unibet as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 49 percent but showing a slightly negative value edge of -4.52 percent, meaning the price does not currently look generous relative to that estimated probability.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.94 reflects a near coin-flip scenario on paper, but the negative value edge means the price does not offer a statistical advantage. Bettors considering this angle should treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a confidently backed selection, and manage stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 53% confidence rating.
PAOK are strong favourites, priced at 1.62 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of about 62 percent, compared to Panetolikos at 6.5.
The draw is priced at 4.1 with Suprabets, implying an approximate 24 percent probability.
The model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.94 as its recommended bet, but this comes with a negative value edge of -4.52 percent, meaning the odds do not currently offer a clear statistical advantage; no other value picks met the threshold.
Panetolikos Agrinio vs PAOK Thessaloniki takes place Today · 18:00 in the Greek Super League.
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