Liga MX · Tue · 03:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Pachuca's 1.41 price implies roughly a 71% chance, making them strong favourites at home against Puebla.
Puebla at 8.25 are given only around a 12% implied chance, reflecting the large gap between the two sides in the market.
The draw is priced at 4.75, or about 21% implied probability, a fairly typical outcome pricing for a match with a clear favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 shows a negative value edge of -5.45%, so it is a modest lean rather than an edge-based bet.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pachuca | 1.40 | Coolbet | 71.4% |
| Puebla | 8.25 | Coolbet | 12.1% |
| Draw | 4.75 | Coolbet | 21.1% |
This Liga MX meeting between Pachuca and Puebla sees the market lean firmly towards the hosts. Pachuca are priced at 1.41, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 71%, marking them as clear favourites. Puebla, by contrast, are a distant outsider at 8.25, implying only around 12%, while the draw sits at 4.75, or about 21% in probability terms. That wide gap tells you the bookmakers expect Pachuca to control this contest. Our model, however, steers away from picking a side and instead looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 55%. It is worth noting the value edge here is calculated at -5.45%, meaning the odds sit slightly below what our model considers fair value, so this is a lean rather than a standout play in this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.72, backed by around 55% model confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -5.45%, meaning the price is slightly short of fair value. Treat this as a low-conviction lean and stake responsibly within your usual limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 23:00 | Atlante FC v Toluca | 5.90 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| 16 Aug 01:00 | Monterrey v FC Juárez | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
| 16 Aug 03:00 | Atlas v Tigres | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| 16 Aug 18:00 | Pumas v Querétaro | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.05 |
| 16 Aug 23:00 | América v Atlético San Luis | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| 17 Aug 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Guadalajara | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| 17 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Cruz Azul | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| 18 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v León | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 55% confidence rating.
Pachuca are the clear favourites at 1.41, an implied probability of about 71%. Puebla are outsiders at 8.25, roughly 12%.
The draw is priced at 4.75 with Coolbet, which implies around a 21% chance of the teams sharing the points.
No pick cleared our value threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 actually shows a negative edge of -5.45%, so it is a lean at best rather than a value bet.
Pachuca vs Puebla takes place Tue · 03:00 in the Liga MX.
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