English ⚽ Liga MX 🕒 18 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 3.0 goals
Odds
1.68
LostResult
2-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
54%Pre-match conf.
-2.33%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Coolbet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Pachuca's 1.41 price implies roughly a 71% chance, making them strong favourites at home against Puebla.
02
Puebla at 8.25 are given only around a 12% implied chance, reflecting the large gap between the two sides in the market.
03
The draw is priced at 4.75, or about 21% implied probability, a fairly typical outcome pricing for a match with a clear favourite.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 shows a negative value edge of -5.45%, so it is a modest lean rather than an edge-based bet.
Team form
PAC Pachuca WWDLL
12 Sept 26 @ Atlante FC 3-0
5 Sept 26 @ FC Juárez 2-0
23 Aug 26 @ Atlético San Luis 1-1
18 Aug 26 vs Puebla 2-3
2 Aug 26 @ León 0-1
PUE Puebla DLWWW
19 Sept 26 vs Atlante FC 1-1
16 Sept 26 vs Toluca 0-1
12 Sept 26 @ Necaxa 1-0
23 Aug 26 vs Santos Laguna 3-2
18 Aug 26 @ Pachuca 3-2
Head-to-head: Pachuca v Puebla
L 18 Aug 26
Pachuca 2-3 PueblaLiga MX
W/D/L shown from Pachuca's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Pachuca vs Puebla: pre-match preview
This Liga MX meeting between Pachuca and Puebla sees the market lean firmly towards the hosts. Pachuca are priced at 1.41, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 71%, marking them as clear favourites. Puebla, by contrast, are a distant outsider at 8.25, implying only around 12%, while the draw sits at 4.75, or about 21% in probability terms. That wide gap tells you the bookmakers expect Pachuca to control this contest. Our model, however, steers away from picking a side and instead looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 55%. It is worth noting the value edge here is calculated at -5.45%, meaning the odds sit slightly below what our model considers fair value, so this is a lean rather than a standout play in this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.72, backed by around 55% model confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -5.45%, meaning the price is slightly short of fair value. Treat this as a low-conviction lean and stake responsibly within your usual limits.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Liga MX fixtures
All Liga MX tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 21 Sept 02:10 | Querétaro v León | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:00 | Cruz Azul v Toluca | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 26 Sept 23:07 | Guadalajara v Querétaro | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Pachuca vs Puebla?+
Our tip was Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.68.
Who is the favourite for Pachuca vs Puebla?+
Pachuca are the clear favourites at 1.41, an implied probability of about 71%. Puebla are outsiders at 8.25, roughly 12%.
What are the draw odds for this Liga MX match?+
The draw is priced at 4.75 with Coolbet, which implies around a 21% chance of the teams sharing the points.
Is there value in this fixture?+
No pick cleared our value threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 actually shows a negative edge of -5.45%, so it is a lean at best rather than a value bet.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).